Nasdaq Files With SEC for Options on Nasdaq as Prediction Markets Hit Record Volumes

TLDR

• Nasdaq filed with the SEC to offer binary “yes or no” options tied to the Nasdaq-100 index, priced between $0.01 and $1
• The contracts, called “Outcome Related Options,” would mirror prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi
• Combined monthly trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket hit $18.4 billion in February — a sixth straight record
• Other exchanges including Cboe and CME are also moving into prediction-style products
• SEC Chair Paul Atkins called prediction markets a “huge issue,” flagging potential regulatory overlap between the SEC and CFTC

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Nasdaq Files for Prediction Market-Style Binary Options Tied to Nasdaq-100 (NDX) as Crypto Platforms Race Into the Space

Nasdaq has filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission to offer a new type of binary options contract tied to its flagship Nasdaq-100 index.

The filing was submitted by Nasdaq MRX, one of Nasdaq’s options exchanges, on Monday.

The contracts are called “Outcome Related Options.” They are priced between $0.01 and $1, settling at $1 if the outcome is correct and expiring worthless if not.

The products are tied to both the Nasdaq-100 Index and the Nasdaq-100 Micro index. They would not cover events outside of finance, such as sports or politics.

The format closely mirrors the structure used by prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, which have seen rapid growth in recent months.

Prediction Markets Hit Record Volumes

Combined monthly trading volume across Kalshi and Polymarket reached $18.4 billion in February, the sixth consecutive monthly record. January had previously set a high of just over $17 billion.

Nasdaq is also seeking to list the contracts on two other exchanges it operates — Nasdaq NOM and Nasdaq PHLX — which use different pricing models that can reward traders for adding liquidity.

Nasdaq MRX, where the initial filing was made, uses a first-come, first-served model and does not offer trading incentives.

If approved, the contracts would be listed as securities options under SEC oversight. That would set them apart from many existing event-style contracts, which typically fall under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

SEC Chair Paul Atkins recently described prediction markets as a “huge issue,” pointing to potential overlap between the SEC and CFTC in regulating them.

Other Exchanges Are Moving Fast

Cboe Global Markets said it is exploring a revival of “all-or-nothing” binary options tied to financial benchmarks.

CME Group is expanding crypto derivatives access and has partnered with FanDuel to allow bets on markets outside of finance.

Crypto asset manager Bitwise filed last month to launch “PredictionShares” ETFs tied to the 2028 US presidential election. GraniteShares and Roundhill made similar filings in February.

Crypto platforms are also in the mix. Coinbase and Crypto.com are integrating prediction market features into their platforms.

The Intercontinental Exchange has also invested in the prediction market space or signaled plans to launch its own products.

Nasdaq’s proposal would bring fixed-payout, event-style trading directly into the listed equity index options market for the first time.

The filing lands as regulators are paying closer attention. SEC Chair Atkins made his comments about the sector earlier this month.

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