Ethereum slid below the psychologically important $2,000 level this week, prompting fresh speculation after on-chain trackers flagged wallet activity linked to Vitalik Buterin.
However, a closer look at price structure and volume suggests the move was already underway — with market weakness preceding, not reacting to, the sale.
ETH was rolling over before the sale
On the daily chart, Ethereum had already broken below its late-January support band near $2,400, turning a previously defended range into resistance. Since then, ETH has posted a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, a classic signal that sellers are in control.
Source: TradingView
By the time the $2,000 level came into view, momentum had already deteriorated. Volume expanded on down days through February, while recovery attempts failed to reclaim prior breakdown levels — indicating distribution rather than a single event-driven selloff.
What the on-chain data actually shows
Blockchain data indicates that approximately 19,300 ETH — valued near $39 million — were moved and sold via settlement routes over several tranches, at an average price just above $2,000.
While the headline figure is notable, it represents a fraction of daily ETH spot and derivatives turnover during the same period.
Importantly, the transfers occurred into existing weakness, not ahead of it. There was no sharp spike in volatility or volume coinciding with the transactions, suggesting the market absorbed the flow without structural stress.
As of this writing, Arkham data shows that the Ethereum founder still holds over 224,000 ETH, worth around $447 million.
Accumulation trends remain soft
The accumulation/distribution indicator continues to trend lower, reinforcing the view that larger participants have been reducing exposure over time.
That weakness aligns with ETH’s failure to hold above its 50-day and 100-day moving averages earlier in the quarter — levels that often separate trend continuation from trend reversal.
In short, liquidity was already thinning on rallies, leaving ETH vulnerable once broader market pressure returned.
Why the narrative took over
High-profile wallet activity tends to attract attention during drawdowns, particularly when prices hover near round-number levels.
However, causality matters. The chart shows Ethereum’s decline began weeks before the sale, with macro risk-off sentiment and fading speculative appetite doing most of the work.
That distinction is critical. Event-driven explanations imply sudden shocks; structural weakness points to longer repair periods.
What comes next for ETH
From a technical perspective, $2,000 has now shifted from support to a contested zone. Sustained closes below it raise the risk of a deeper move toward the mid-$1,700s, where prior demand last emerged.
Any rebound attempt will likely need to reclaim $2,200–$2,300 to alter the current bearish structure.
Until then, Ethereum remains in a corrective phase defined by declining momentum, not by a single on-chain headline.
Final Summary
- Ethereum’s latest drop reflects a market that was already losing strength, with price structure breaking down well before any high-profile wallet activity surfaced.
- Until ETH rebuilds support above former resistance levels, the trend, not individual transactions, is likely to remain the dominant force.
Source: https://ambcrypto.com/ethereums-drop-isnt-about-vitalik-charts-show-a-market-already-rolling-over/
