XRP price outlook: Market gears for reset as 90-day open interest shows deleveraging

XRP price outlook leans towards a market reset amid falling open interest and a spike in realized losses.

Summary

• XRP has seen a sharp decline in recent sessions, pulling back over 60% from its 2025 high.
• Open interest has dropped across Binance, Bybit and Kraken, reflecting broad leverage reduction.
• A major realized loss spike and tightening volatility place price near a key technical inflection zone.

XRP (XRP) was trading at $1.39 at press time, down 5.4% over the past 24 hours, as the broader crypto market extended its February pullback.

The token has fallen 27% over the past week and is now down 38% year-over-year, marking a steep 62% retracement from its July 2025 all-time high of $3.65.

Price action throughout the month has been volatile. XRP saw brief upside bursts, including a roughly 6% rally tied to renewed institutional spot interest and ETF-related developments. Those gains were short-lived.

Selling pressure returned quickly, supporting the downtrend that has been in place since the $2.60–$2.80 region.

Lower highs and lower lows have defined the structure, and recent candles show the market attempting to stabilize after a sharp capitulation wick toward the $1.30 area.

Open interest drops as leverage unwinds

A Feb. 26 report from CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain pointed to a steady contraction in XRP derivatives positioning. The 90-day open interest change metric shows that traders have reduced exposure across major venues.

Platforms such as Binance, Bybit, and Kraken have all recorded declines in open contracts over the past three months.

When open interest falls across several exchanges at once, it usually means leverage is being taken off the table. Positions are closed, risk is trimmed, and speculative liquidity leaves the market.

That type of contraction does not automatically point to another leg lower. In many cycles, the price first needs to flush excess leverage before it can form a more stable base.

On-chain data adds context. According to Santiment, XRP recently logged its largest realized loss spike since 2022. The last time weekly realized losses approached $1.93 billion, the asset rallied more than 100% in the months that followed.

Fear often drives investors to sell below their entry price, resulting in significant losses. Selling pressure may go down as fewer weak hands are left after a lot of holders leave.

There is no guarantee that the market will bounce back right away, but historically, these points happen close to major market turns.

XRP price technical analysis

On the daily chart, XRP remains in a downtrend, with lower highs forming consistently since late 2025. Recently, however, price behavior has changed. Instead of sharp red candles, the market is now consolidating within a tight range.

Bollinger Bands, which expanded during the selloff, have begun to contract. The price hovers near the 20-day moving average at $1.41, indicating a balance between buyers and sellers.

Momentum is starting to show signs of strain. The relative strength index has bounced back from oversold, but it is still below 50, which means that bulls haven’t fully taken over. A push above 50 would change the momentum in favor of buyers. 

A volatility squeeze appears to be developing, and expansion is likely to follow. The $1.50–$1.55 area stands as the key resistance zone. A clean break and daily close above it would invalidate the most recent lower high and open room toward $1.65 and potentially $1.80.

On the downside, $1.33 remains immediate support, with $1.28–$1.30 acting as the structural floor from the recent liquidity sweep.