Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Still Intact? On-Chain and Price Align Again

According to a new report by CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s current structure closely mirrors the previous cycle, suggesting that the four-year cycle framework remains broadly consistent.

Phase 1: Post-Halving Expansion

In both cycles, Bitcoin rallied strongly after the halving event. Price moved significantly above the Anchored VWAP tied to the halving, reflecting strong bullish momentum. Weekly candles frequently closed near the upper AVWAP band, which historically served as a reference for identifying overheated market conditions and potential tops. During this phase, the weekly SMA50 had a clear positive slope and acted as dynamic support, reinforcing the strength of the uptrend.

Phase 2: Trend Weakening Begins

As the cycle matured, early warning signs began to appear in both periods. Price eventually closed below the weekly SMA50, signaling a shift in momentum. A lower high formed, indicating that buyers were losing strength. At the same time, the AVWAP anchored to the cycle’s all-time high started acting as resistance, while the halving AVWAP gradually weakened as support. This marked the transition from expansion to distribution and structural fragility.

Phase 3: Confluence With On-Chain Weakness

During the 2022 decline, on-chain metrics began to deteriorate in sync with price action. Supply in Loss increased sharply, NUPL compressed toward neutral or negative territory, and realized losses spiked. New whales showed signs of stress, while miner profitability declined.

In the current 2026 drop, a similar pattern is emerging. Supply in Loss is again around 9.5 million BTC, a comparable magnitude to the prior cycle. NUPL has cooled significantly to approximately +0.11, realized losses have reached roughly $6 billion, and UPR for new whales has turned negative. Although older whales remain in profit, their profitability is compressing, and short-term holder NUPL has moved into negative territory, indicating capitulation among recent buyers.

In both cycles, weakness in price action coincided with deteriorating on-chain conditions. This alignment did not occur randomly but reflected deeper structural stress within the market.

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What This Means Structurally

The evidence suggests that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle continues to behave in a broadly consistent manner. The synchronized deterioration of price structure and on-chain metrics resembles corrective phases seen in previous cycles rather than a completely new market regime.

This does not automatically imply that the bottom is in, but it reinforces the idea that the current correction fits within historical cycle behavior.

Final Assessment

Bitcoin’s current phase shows strong similarities to the corrective stage of the 2020–2022 cycle. In both cases, price breakdowns aligned with worsening holder metrics, confirming structural weakness rather than isolated volatility.

For now, the data suggests that the four-year cycle remains intact. Whether this phase evolves into deeper capitulation or transitions into base formation will depend on how both price structure and on-chain indicators develop in the coming months.

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