Trump’s State of the Union Signals No Relief on Rates, Ignores Crypto

The US President Donald Trump delivered a nearly two-hour State of the Union address on Tuesday — the longest in US history — touting economic gains, warning Iran against pursuing nuclear weapons, and defending his tariff agenda after a Supreme Court setback.

Yet in a speech that touched on taxes, AI, housing, and healthcare, digital assets were entirely absent.

All the Trumps Were There, but Not Crypto

The omission is striking. All of Trump’s children were in attendance, including sons Donald Jr. and Eric, who have been deeply involved in crypto ventures such as World Liberty Financial and various token launches.

The president himself has repeatedly pledged to make the US “the crypto capital of the planet.” None of that made it into the address.

Tariff Chaos and Sticky Inflation Keep the Fed on Hold

For crypto markets, the most consequential signals were macro, not legislative.

Trump called the Supreme Court’s ruling striking down his emergency tariffs “very unfortunate” and vowed to maintain them under alternative legal authorities, insisting “congressional action will not be necessary.”

But the rollout quickly turned chaotic. Trump first announced a 10% replacement rate, then revised it to 15% days later. Yet official documents show the lower rate took effect Tuesday with no directive to raise it. The EU suspended ratification of its summer trade deal on Monday; India deferred scheduled talks.

Trump repeated his claim that tariffs could “substantially replace” income taxes. Economists call this implausible. The federal government collected $2.4 trillion in income taxes in 2024 but took in only about $300 billion from tariffs — and must now refund roughly half of that under the court ruling. Also, US importers pay the tariffs, not foreign governments.

On inflation, Trump claimed core inflation fell to 1.7% in late 2025. The reality is more complicated. The Fed’s preferred gauge — core PCE — accelerated to 3% in December, well above the 2% target.

With inflation sticky and tariff policy unresolved, the Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady for the foreseeable future. The three-quarter-point cuts delivered late last year appear to be the last for some time. For risk assets, including crypto, the higher-rate environment persists.

AI Gets Attention, Crypto Does Not

While crypto went unmentioned, AI earned a dedicated segment. Trump announced a “ratepayer protection pledge” requiring tech companies to build their own power plants for data centers, acknowledging the grid “could never handle” surging demand.

First Lady Melania Trump‘s AI legislation work was also highlighted — a sign that AI policy occupies a far more prominent place in the administration’s agenda than digital asset regulation.

The Bottom Line

Trump’s record-length address was a midterm election pitch built on economic optimism. But for crypto participants, the takeaways are clear: no legislative momentum for digital assets despite the president’s family being neck-deep in the industry, unresolved tariff turmoil injecting macro uncertainty, and a Fed locked in place by sticky inflation. The conditions weighing on risk assets aren’t likely to change anytime soon.