Bitcoin Dips Under $63K as Market Enters Full Capitulation Phase

Panic selling by short-term holders, combined with the RSI near record lows, suggests that BTC could be transitioning into a full capitulation regime.

Bitcoin (BTC) sellers resumed their activity on Tuesday as the BTC price dropped 4% in 24 hours to an intraday low of $62,700.

Analysts said that Bitcoin has entered an “excess loss-realization” phase, with the relative strength index (RSI) suggesting that a price bottom may be forming. 

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin holders continued capitulating, pushing the BTC price below $63,000 on Tuesday. 

• Bitcoin’s weekly RSI is nearing record lows, signaling a potential bottom.

BTC/USD hourly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin holders continue capitulating

The Short-Term Holder SOPR (STH-SOPR), which measures whether short-term holders are selling at a profit or a loss, dropped below 1 after US President Donald Trump announced a new 15% global tariff on Saturday.

Related: Negative Bitcoin funding rate may signal short squeeze above $70K

Currently at 0.95, the metric shows “renewed short-term loss realization,” CryptoQuant analyst XWIN Research Japan said in a Quicktake post on Monday, adding:

Bitcoin: Short-term holder SOPR. Source: CryptoQuant

When analyzing the volume of coins spent at a loss, the seven-day estimated moving average (EMA) of Bitcoin’s short-term holder net realized losses had cooled to $500 million per day, after rising as high as $1.24 billion per day on Feb. 6. 

Glassnode said: 

Bitcoin entity adjusted STH Net realized profit/loss. Source: Glassnode

The 90-day simple moving average (SMA) of Bitcoin’s realized profit/loss ratio has “now fallen below 1, confirming a full transition into an excess loss-realization regime,” Glassnode said.

Bitcoin: Realized profit/loss ratio. Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin’s “most oversold” RSI could be a bottom

Bitcoin’s weekly relative strength index, which measures the speed and change of price movements, reached its “most oversold” score of 25.71 on Tuesday.

These levels were last seen on July 22, a few months before the BTC price bottomed at $15,500 and then embarked on a bull run.

BTC/USD weekly RSI. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

In all previous capitulation events when the RSI hit such extreme levels, short-term weakness was common, but a long-term recovery followed every time.

Bitcoin’s weekly RSI is the “most oversold it has ever been, currently at 25.6, which is lower than the previous record low level back after 3AC/Luna crash,” crypto analyst Nic Puckrin said in an X post on Tuesday, adding:

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s fear and greed index is at historic lows while the number of bulls predicting new all-time highs is declining, which may be healthy market indicators for a macro bottom. 

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