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'If you’re not accumulating bitcoin at this
'If you’re not accumulating bitcoin at this stage, then when,' asks prominent analyst
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'If you’re not accumulating bitcoin at this stage, then when,' asks prominent analyst
Time, not price, is probably going to be more frustrating for bulls from here, wrote James Check, but bitcoin has been mostly de-risked at this point.
By Stephen Alpher
Feb 24, 2026, 1:48 p.m.
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Bitcoin bottoming process becomes clear (Shutterstock)
What to know:
- Bitcoin appears to be bottoming based on any number of indicators, wrote James Check.
- As in 2022, it could be several months of bouncing around before the actual cycle low is in place.
Bitcoin is exhibiting textbook bottom formation characteristics across multiple indicators, trading at levels that historically precede significant recoveries, according to prominent onchain analyst James Check. Time — not price — is, however, likely to be the bigger test for bitcoin bulls.
"Every mean reversion model, from technical to onchain is trading within bottom formation levels, typically seen after the price capitulation event (which December 2018 and June 2022 were examples of)," wrote Check on Tuesday morning as bitcoin plunged through $63,000, seemingly on its way to testing the Feb. 5 panic low of $60,000.
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"Either Bitcoin is dead, will no longer mean revert, and all your models are broken," Check continued. "Or you should be ignoring the bears ... and quietly dollar cost averaging [and] stacking sats from here on."
While Check allows that it's possible or even likely that the price of bitcoin could fall even further from here, it's time that will play the key factor. He reminds of the brutal 2022 bear market. Folks remember the price low around $15,600 in December of that year, but bitcoin essentially bottomed six months earlier at about $17,600. The rest was just waiting, and then a final liquidity flush (surrounding the FTX collapse).
"This is literally what a de-risked setup looks like for bitcoin," concluded Check. "If you're not actively accumulating bitcoin at this stage, then when?"
Bitcoin Newsmarket analysis
More For You
Bitcoin’s U.S. demand signal turns negative for a record 40 days
The indicator last printed positive on Jan. 15. Its failure to fully recover after a Feb. 5 rebound suggests U.S. demand remains structurally absent rather than temporarily paused.
What to know:
- The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has stayed negative for 40 straight days, its longest sub-zero streak since 2023, signaling persistent weakness in U.S. demand.
- While bitcoin has rebounded about 15 percent from its Feb. 5 low and climbed back above $62,000, the U.S.-focused premium has not recovered, implying the recent buying came largely from outside American trading hours and venues.
- The premium has inched higher from about -0.22 percent to near -0.05 percent, but remains below the positive levels historically associated with sustained accumulation, as U.S. investors show rising skepticism reflected in record domestic Google searches for “bitcoin zero.”
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