Why Trump’s State of the Union could give MAGA a 'false sense of security'

President Donald Trump's 2026 State of the Union (SOTU) address is set for this Tuesday night, February 24. Because Trump frequently expresses his opinions via his Truth Social platform, some political voices aren't expecting to hear anything new from him. But Slate's Jim Newell, in an article published the day of the speech, lays out some reasons why a SOTU can have a major impact — and in some cases, a negative one.

To illustrate his point, Newell looks back on two past SOTU addresses: Trump's in 2017 and former President Joe Biden's in 2024.

"Why does this snookering keep happening?" Newell asks. "The State of the Union is a moment when the president can project the exact aura he wants on a grand stage. For Biden, that was vigor. For Trump's first, that was gravitas. They get not only that moment, but an artificial news peg — a chance to reassess whatever narrative is setting in that they don't like. And people keep falling for it by acting as if these speeches are reflections of reality. You're better off trusting the version of the politician you see outside the heavily staged infomercial in the House of Representatives."

After Biden's SOTU in February 2024, many of his allies were convinced that he could go the distance with his reelection campaign and win a second term. But Biden's widely criticized performance during a debate with Trump later that year doomed his campaign, and he ended up dropping out of the race.

"The stakes were unusually high for President Joe Biden in his 2024 State of the Union address," Newell recalls. "Most Americans thought he was too old to run for a second term, but Biden was dead set on doing so….. Biden's team got the headlines they wanted, with his hour-plus speech being described as 'feisty,' 'fiery,' 'energetic' and 'impassioned,' 'rowdy and shouty.' It was all of those things…. Biden hadn't become a younger man overnight, but he gave enough of a performance of energy to temporarily contain Democratic murmurs about his standing for reelection."

Trump's 2017 SOTU, Newell notes, was viewed as his chance to present himself as a more traditional Republican and a "statesman."

"Only old souls will remember," Newell explains, "but there was a moment early in his first presidency when it was an open question as to whether the enormity of the job would humble Trump into becoming something different: that he'd talk less trash, that he’d project gravitas. That he’d become something, in other words, resembling a statesman. That, at least, was an image his speechwriters sought to project in his first joint address in 2017…. Not many days after the speech, Trump was back to his usual self, going on tweet binges about how President Barack Obama had tapped his phones."

A SOTU, the Slate journalist warns, can do damage when it gives "false senses of security."

"Some advice, then, to 2028 candidates for president: Promise to refuse a congressional invitation to address a joint session of Congress, and return Americans their regularly scheduled programming," Newell argues. "That can't hurt."

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