Bitcoin: Price and Forecasts Declining

In recent days, not only has the price of Bitcoin fallen, but the price levels indicated by many forecasts for the near future have also significantly decreased. 

However, it is crucial to clearly distinguish between short-term, medium-term, and long-term dynamics. 

In fact, these are dynamics that are distinctly different from each other, driven or generated by different causes with different time horizons. 

The Short Term

In the short term, the situation does not look good at all. 

First of all, there is the price drop, which has fallen in the last two days from $68,000 to $63,000. 

This is a significant decline, backed by substantial volumes, enough to start forming a downward trend. 

Furthermore, by analyzing the trading volumes of this latest declining phase, which began at the end of January, it is revealed that the majority of these volumes are concentrated within a price range between $62,200 and $73,300. 

It is true that the current price level is still within this range, but below $63,000 there do not appear to be strong supports capable of preventing further significant declines. 

In fact, there are several forecasts suggesting that the price of Bitcoin in the short term might not only fall below $60,000, but perhaps even below $50,000, unless the downward trend halts. 

It should be noted that the U.S. government, due to tariffs, is continuing to drain liquidity from the markets, although since the end of January, the level of drained liquidity has been stabilizing around 900 billion dollars. 

The Medium Term

As for the coming months, the situation doesn’t appear any more promising. 

First of all, historically during the midterm election years in the USA, the price of Bitcoin has almost always entered a strong bear-market since the first cycle concluded in 2013 (2014, 2018, and 2022). This is also because the ruling majority in the country benefits from a strong dollar for electoral purposes, which generally weakens Bitcoin. 

Moreover, one of the major issues currently driving Bitcoin downward is the fear in the financial markets, which could persist for months, at least until the midterm elections in November. 

To see all this, it is advisable to look at the gold price chart. 

Starting from November 2025, the price of gold began to rise again after a brief correction, reaching an initial peak at the end of January at nearly $5,600 per ounce. At that particular historical moment, the longest government shutdown in the entire history of the USA was underway, which only ended on November 12, but had repercussions at least until the 21st. 

In that situation, the price of Bitcoin fell, and then resumed its decline in mid-January 2026 when the price of gold was approaching its all-time highs. 

Unfortunately, since the beginning of February, gold seems to have started rising again, and unsurprisingly, Bitcoin has started to decline. 

This dynamic could continue for weeks, or perhaps even months, as it is closely linked to the fear permeating the markets, primarily due to the worsening international geopolitical situation. 

The Long Term

However, the situation changes in the long term.

To be honest, when it comes to the true long term, it is not possible to make predictions with a high probability of being accurate, so it is better to focus on the medium to long term, specifically what might happen in the coming years, starting from 2027. 

After the midterm elections in November, the situation could theoretically change. 

Specifically, if the Democrats, opponents of Trump, were to secure a majority in both the House and the Senate, they could request his impeachment, potentially altering the current situation. 

In reality, it is already anticipated that the Democrats could easily win the midterm elections, although it is still not at all clear whether they will manage to secure a majority in both the House and the Senate. In the hypothetical scenario where, at some point in the coming months, polls suggest this outcome is likely, it is possible that market fears may start to diminish slightly, causing the price of gold to drop and perhaps allowing Bitcoin’s price to rise a bit. 

In this historical moment, it is fear that dominates the price dynamics of gold and Bitcoin. Therefore, it is entirely reasonable to imagine that if this fear were to diminish, it could lead to a decrease in the price of gold and a rebound in the price of Bitcoin. 

Gold

Probably at this moment, the indicator to keep under close observation to understand Bitcoin’s price dynamics is precisely the price of gold, as it clearly indicates the level of fear in the markets, and consequently how much Bitcoin is being restrained. 

However, another metric must be added to this, namely the amount of dollars that the US government holds in its bank accounts. 

Consider that four years ago, in February 2022, this figure did not exceed 700 billion dollars, while now it is around 900. In fact, in 2018 it did not surpass 300 billion, although it eventually reached 400 in April. 

Therefore, the overall picture in the short term is not good, and in the medium term, it might continue to be unfavorable for at least a while. However, in the long term, theoretically, it could eventually improve.