ONDO is approaching the oversold region at RSI 38 level while the MACD histogram gives a positive momentum signal; however, the weak short-term trend continues below EMA20. The downtrend, unsupported by volume decline, is testing critical supports for a possible recovery.
Trend Status and Momentum Analysis
ONDO’s current price is trading at the 0.25 dollar level and recorded a 3.81% decline in the last 24 hours, with the daily range limited between 0.25-0.26 dollars. The overall trend direction continues downward, with the Supertrend indicator producing a bearish signal while the 0.32 dollar resistance forms a strong barrier. From a momentum perspective, mixed signals are observed: RSI at 38.15 is near oversold, while the MACD’s positive histogram indicates hidden bullish momentum. The EMA ribbon structure is bearish in the short term, with the price remaining below EMA20 (0.27 dollars). Volume is at a medium level of 40.78 million dollars but does not strongly confirm the decline; this may signal an accumulation phase. In multi-timeframe (MTF) confluence, a total of 11 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 2 supports/1 resistance on 1D, 2S/2R on 3D, and 2S/4R distribution on 1W, dominated by resistances. This configuration suggests short-term recovery potential while maintaining the dominance of the overall downtrend. Momentum oscillators’ confluence is still insufficient for a clear reversal, but the RSI’s low level could create a bounce opportunity. You can access detailed data from the ONDO Spot Analysis and ONDO Futures Analysis pages.
RSI Indicator: Buy or Sell?
RSI Divergence Analysis
RSI (14) is currently at 38.15 and positioned just above the oversold region of 30. This level signals that momentum is beginning to exhaust despite recent price declines. No regular bearish divergence is observed; on the contrary, while prices make new lows, RSI forming higher lows carries hidden bullish divergence potential. Particularly on the 1D timeframe, RSI rose from 32 to 38 between the last two bottoms while the price tested the 0.2463 support – this is a signal suggesting accumulation by whales. However, the divergence is not fully confirmed; breaking above 40 could strengthen bullish momentum. On the 3D chart, RSI is stable around 35, and on the weekly around 42 – creating general oversold confluence. Volume increase is required for the divergence to materialize; current low volume weakens the divergence.
Overbought/Oversold Regions
RSI at 38 is quite close to oversold; typically, levels below 30 give strong bounce signals. In ONDO recently, RSI dipping to 25 resulted in quick recoveries. In the current position, selling pressure appears to be easing, but trend change is difficult without breaking the 50 neutral level. The overbought region (70+) is distant; this reduces short-term short squeeze risk. RSI dropping below 30 could trigger bearish targets (0.2018, even 0.0957), while passing 55 above would lead to the 0.32 resistance.
MACD Signals and Histogram Dynamics
MACD is in bullish status, with the histogram positive and expanding – this confirms hidden bullish momentum within the downtrend. The signal line crossover recently turned bullish, with the MACD line crossing above the signal into positive territory. The size of histogram bars is increasing; despite negative price action in the last 24 hours, momentum is strengthening above the zero line. This dynamic shows sales exhausting and buyers potentially entering. While histogram contraction is seen on 1H and 4H, expansion dominates on the daily. Bearish crossover risk increases with a drop below the zero line; the current positive structure supports a test of 0.27 EMA20. If confirmed by volume, MACD becomes a strong signal source for this level.
EMA Systems and Trend Strength
Short-Term EMAs
Price below EMA20 (0.27 dollars) shows a bearish short-term trend; ribbon squeeze between EMA10 and EMA50 signals weakening trend strength. EMA9 is pulling the price down, but support formation is occurring at the ribbon’s lower bands. Short-term trend strength measurement shows momentum declining, but approaching EMA20 could be positive.
Medium/Long-Term EMA Supports
Medium-term EMA50 (around 0.28) and EMA200 (around 0.30) are acting as resistances; the ribbon is widening in the downtrend, with bearish trend strength. Dropping below long-term EMA200 would accelerate downward momentum. In support confluence, the 0.2463 level overlaps with EMA100 – this is a critical hold point.
Bitcoin Correlation
BTC at 64,934 dollar level with 3.81% decline in downtrend; Supertrend bearish and supports at 64,323-61,533 critical. ONDO is highly correlated with BTC (0.85+); BTC failing to break 65,398 resistance increases pressure on altcoins. BTC dominance rise negatively affects ONDO – BTC rally above 68,196 opens 0.35 target for ONDO, while 61,533 breakdown drags it below 0.20. Altcoin caution mode prevails; ONDO’s momentum is BTC-dependent.
Momentum Summary and Expectations
In momentum synthesis, RSI’s oversold approach and MACD’s positive histogram give bullish signals, but EMA’s bearish position and low volume sustain the downtrend. Critical support at 0.2463 (73/100 score); holding it leads to 0.27-0.32 recovery, breakdown brings bearish targets 0.2018-0.0957. Bullish scenario with RSI 50+ and MACD expansion to 0.3509 (30 score). Volume confirmation awaited; MTF resistances (especially 1W 4R) limit upside potential. Short-term consolidation, outlook tied to BTC movements prevails. Overall momentum weakly bearish, oscillator confluence required for reversal.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/ondo-technical-analysis-23-february-2026-rsi-macd-momentum
