XMR is consolidating in a narrow range ($306.69-$328.90) within a downtrend at the $315.95 level; while RSI at 38.32 is approaching the oversold region and MACD gives a bearish signal, staying above EMA20 carries short-term bullish potential. At this critical juncture, both an upside bounce and a downside breakout scenario are equally likely on the table, and traders must closely monitor MTF levels.
Current Market Situation
XMR is trading at $315.95 with a 1.24% decline over the last 24 hours, maintaining its overall downtrend character. The daily range is squeezed between $306.69 (low) and $328.90 (high), with volume at a moderate $46.05M – indicating an indecisive market structure. Looking at technical indicators, the 14-period RSI stands at 38.32 near oversold, increasing the potential for a reaction buy (bounce). MACD confirms bearish momentum with a negative histogram, trading below the signal line.
EMAs are giving mixed signals: Price is trading above EMA20 ($130.53), indicating a short-term bullish structure, but remaining below higher EMAs like EMA50 and EMA200 confirms the downtrend. The Supertrend indicator is in bearish mode and drawing resistance at $145.76 – if price pulls back toward here, it could face additional pressure. In MTF analysis (1D/3D/1W), a total of 9 strong levels were identified: 4 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 3S/3R on 3D, 4S/3R balance on 1W – showing market equilibrium. Key supports: $117.58 (score 80/100), $100.40 (71/100), $109.55 (69/100); resistances: $131.17 (76/100), $119.35 (71/100). With declining volume, volatility is low, and a breakout is anticipated.
Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario
How This Scenario Unfolds?
For the bullish scenario, holding the $306.69 local support is critical first; from here, a strong volume increase breaking RSI above 50 and a bullish MACD cross (histogram turning positive) are required. Then, a breakout above the $328.90 range is confirmed (4-hour close above), gaining momentum with short-term EMA20 support. If 1W resistances ($131-$145 band already passed, but new resistances in higher timeframes) are overcome in MTF, buyers enter driven by privacy coin demand (Monero’s privacy-focused structure without triggering regulation fears). If BTC correlation is positive (BTC above $67k), altcoin rotation lifts XMR. Invalidation criterion: Scenario invalidates on a close below $306, as it triggers a cascade bearish move.
Signals to watch in this scenario: Doji or hammer formation on the daily candle, OBV (On-Balance Volume) rise, Stochastic exit from oversold. Historically, XMR has shown 15-25% recoveries in RSI below 40 bounces; a similar setup supports a $328 breakout here.
Target Levels
First target $350 (range expansion + fib 1.618 extension), then $380-$400 band (previous swing highs). Long-term bullish extension not $180.70 (score 28/100, MTF target), but rather fib extensions up to $450 from current levels are possible – however, $180 can be used as an intermediate target with low score in lower timeframes. Risk/reward ratio (R/R) from current $316: $306 stop with $350 first TP provides 1:2 R/R. Traders should use fib retracements (0.382 $342, 0.618 $365) as a ladder.
Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario
Risk Factors
The bearish scenario triggers with a 4-hour close below $306.69 support; this signals a local range breakdown and accelerates with bearish histogram expansion on MACD without divergence. If RSI drops below 30, selling pressure increases, and testing of Supertrend at $145.76 (now potential support/resistance) begins. Risks: BTC downtrend (break below $66k), general altcoin bleed, and XMR-specific regulation news (privacy coins in the crosshairs). If volume spikes downward, liquidity hunt drops to $250 fib. MTF has abundant 1D/3D supports (9 levels) providing cushion, but if 1W downtrend continues, cascade is inevitable. Invalidation criterion: Reclaim above $306 and $328 close – bullish reversal signal.
Items to monitor: Bearish engulfing candle, negative Chaikin Money Flow, staying below VWAP. XMR has experienced 40%+ drops in past BTC dumps; similar setup applies here.
Protection Levels
First protection $250 (psychological + fib 0.5), then $145.76 Supertrend, $131.17 (76 score resistance→support), $117.58 (80 score strong). Deep target $109.55, $100.40, and ultimate $60.25 (score 21/100, MTF bear extension). Drop from $316 to $117 gives 1:3 R/R ($350 short TP). Traders can protect positions above $131 with trailing stops, $100 area major buying zone.
Which Scenario to Watch?
Decision triggers are clear: For bullish, volume-backed close above $328.90 + RSI>50 + MACD bull cross (1D confirmation). For bearish, close below $306.69 + volume increase + BTC $66k break. Confirmation: 1W Supertrend flip or 3D EMA death/golden cross. In both scenarios, watch for false breakouts with low volatility – ATR (Average True Range) increase confirms real breakout. Monitor leverage effects from XMR Spot Analysis and XMR Futures Analysis pages. Traders should size positions according to their own risk management (max 2% risk) and prepare for both outcomes.
Bitcoin Correlation
Despite being an altcoin, XMR shows partial independence from BTC due to its privacy structure but exhibits 0.75% correlation. BTC at $66,094 in downtrend ($66,018 support, 2.23% decline); if BTC breaks below $64,337, expect 10%+ extra pressure on XMR (altcoin beta effect). Conversely, if BTC resists $67,675 and rises to $69,412, XMR could lead in rotation. BTC Dominance rise (currently bearish Supertrend) signals alt-free rally – BTC holding $62,623 major support is critical for XMR. Use BTC levels to adjust XMR stops/targets: BTC hold → XMR bull bias, BTC break → XMR bear acceleration.
Conclusion and Monitoring Notes
Wait without opening positions on XMR until the $306-$328 range resolves; invalidation levels are clear for each scenario (bull: <$306, bear: >$328). Monitoring list: 1) Volume profile (upward volume → bull), 2) RSI divergence, 3) BTC $66k test, 4) MTF S/R reactions ($117/$131 pivots). Weekly closes determine direction – develop your own analysis with an educational approach. Market is dynamic, follow spot/futures pages for updates.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/xmr-technical-analysis-february-23-2026-will-it-rise-or-fall
