Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Holds $66K as Whales Move to Exchanges

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin price stays above the long-term holder cost-basis “bottom” line of $40,363.
• US spot Bitcoin ETFs have decreased their holdings by roughly 93,000 BTC since October 2025.
• Lookonchain flagged $760M in BTC deposits to Binance, which raised sell-off concerns.

Bitcoin price is moving through a delicate phase as on-chain flows and macro headlines collide. A key long-term holder metric indicates the market is not yet in a classic capitulation zone. Still, ETF outflows, whale exchange deposits, and tariff uncertainty are generating new anxiety across risk assets.

Bitcoin Price Remains Above Long-Term Holder “Bottom” Level

Ali Charts pointed to a metric that has historically been aligned with major cycle bottoms. He added that Bitcoin has frequently bottomed when long-term holders go underwater. On his chart, that threshold is close to $40,363 today.

BTC Daily Chart | Source: Ali, X

In other words, the long-term holder cost basis serves as the stress line for deep bear phases. Once Bitcoin price falls below it, the older hands are at a loss. That is often accompanied by forced selling and general capitulation. Those are moments in history that have previously been opportunities for long-term accumulation.

For now, however, BTC price is still way above that line. Ali’s chart indicated that BTC is near the mid $60k’s at about $66,700. That gap suggests the market has not yet reached the kind of pain point associated with final-cycle washouts. Even so, the cost-basis line provides a clear reference should downside pressure pick up.

ETF Outflows Add Pressure on Supply

Meanwhile, Crypto Patel highlighted another point of pressure: persistent selling associated with US spot Bitcoin ETFs. He said ETFs are offloading approximately 93,000 BTC since October 2025. He also estimated that this corresponded to $6.2 billion in Bitcoin being sold over about 4 months.

BTC US Spot ETF Balances | Source: Crypto Patel, X

Practically, ETF outflows are important because they can be converted into a persistent spot supply. When ETF balances drop, authorized participants may reverse out inventory or hedge flows. That process can cap rallies, even when technical structure suggests a bounce. It also loses momentum during the periods when marginal demand is thin.

Patel said the drawdown was the biggest in the current cycle. That framing keeps traders cautious around Bitcoin price, especially in rebounds. In many recent phases, ETF flow direction has been acting like a trend filter. So long as balances continue to slide, bullish follow-through can be limited.

BTC Whale $760M Binance Deposits Fuel Sell-Off Fears

At the same time, on-chain activity has increased short-term concern. Lookonchain has identified major inflows to exchanges associated with a Bitcoin whale, Garrett Jin. The latest transfers totalled roughly $760 million to Binance, raising fears of a potential sell-off.

Specifically, Lookonchain flagged a transfer of 6,318 BTC, worth around $425 million, to Binance. Earlier in the day, the same address had moved another $336 million. Together, those deposits put together a single headline number to which traders quickly responded.

Source: Lookonchain, X

Even so, exchange inflows are no automatic confirmation to sell. Sometimes money transfers are made for collateral or custody rotation or structured positions. Still, large deposits often cause a lack of confidence because they increase the likelihood of spot distribution.

Additionally, Jin became well known for shorting Bitcoin in anticipation of a tariff-linked crash in October. That record makes his activity more market-moving than an average whale transfer. Lookonchain data shows he still has over 9,300 BTC and about 548,000 ETH, indicating substantial exposure.

Tariff Headlines Add Macro Stress

Finally, macro risk is back at the centre of the story. President Trump stated that the US will introduce a 10% global tariff on all countries for five months. The announcement followed the Supreme Court striking down previous tariffs, but traders remain wary of renewed volatility.

In previous episodes, tariff headlines have tightened conditions for risk very rapidly. As policy uncertainty increases, liquidity tends to withdraw from speculative assets. Crypto can react sharply to fear, especially when large on-chain deposits appear all at once. That backdrop is the reason why Bitcoin price is sensitive to every additional headline.

Moreover, political debate is introducing another source of uncertainty. Senator Elizabeth Warren raised questions of how previously collected tariff payments might be repaid. She warned that there is no legal mechanism for consumers and small businesses to recover any money already paid.

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