STX is maintaining its LH/LL structure under general pressure in altcoin markets; if the $0.2415 support breaks, it could accelerate towards bearish targets, but a BOS above $0.2594 could signal a bullish reversal.
Market Structure Overview
STX’s current market structure shows a clear downtrend character. The price has been advancing with lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) formation in recent weeks; current price at $0.24 level, positioned below EMA20 ($0.27), reinforcing the short-term bearish bias. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 10 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 1D has 2 supports/3 resistances, 3D has 1S/1R, 1W has 1S/2R distribution. Supertrend is giving a bearish signal and resistance is positioned at $0.31. Although RSI at 38.94 is approaching oversold and MACD histogram is positive, the overall structure maintains bearish dominance. The market is moving in parallel with BTC’s downtrend, creating extra risk for altcoins.
Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?
Upward Trend Signals
It’s still early for higher highs/higher lows (HH/HL) structure; holding above the last swing low $0.2415 (score 73/100) and breaking the $0.2464 (75/100) swing high could trigger the first bullish BOS. The positive MACD histogram offers hope for short-term momentum surge, but HH/HL is not confirmed without a close above EMA20 ($0.27+). Bullish continuation target $0.3284 (score 10/100) appears low probability, but could be supported by a BTC reversal.
Downward Trend Risk
Downtrend is clear: LH/LL pattern dominant recently; $0.2594 (78/100) swing high rejected and price made LL to $0.24. If $0.2415 support breaks, the next LL becomes $0.2258 (66/100) and leads to bearish breakdown target $0.1457 (score 22/100). 24h -4.01% change and BTC downtrend strengthen the LL chain. No bullish BOS expected for CHoCH (Change of Character), bearish momentum close to RSI dropping to 38.
Structure Break (BOS) Levels
Structure break (Break of Structure – BOS) levels are critical: For bullish BOS, breaking $0.2594 resistance with a close above is required (78/100 score), invalidating LH and initiating transition to HL. If $0.3115 (64/100) is then tested, trend reversal probability increases. Bearish BOS is a break of $0.2415 swing low; this confirms LL and brings quick drop to $0.2258. In MTF, 1W resistances (around $0.31) are strong, so short-term BOS may create consolidation before changing the big picture. These levels determine trend continuation beyond swing points.
Swing Points and Their Importance
Recent Swing Highs
Recent swing highs: $0.2594 (strongest, 78/100) – last LH and main resistance, break converts to HH. $0.2464 (75/100) – local resistance, liquidity target for shorts when price approaches. $0.3115 (64/100) – higher timeframe resistance, main guardrail of the overall downtrend. As these levels are rejected, LH formation strengthens, increasing bearish bias.
Recent Swing Lows
Recent swing lows: $0.2415 (73/100) – current critical support, holding forms base for short-term bounce, break turns CHoCH bearish. $0.2258 (66/100) – next LL target, stop-hunt zone. These lows indicate downtrend health; LL chain continues without HL formation. Swing points overlap with fib retracements, offering high-probability levels.
Bitcoin Correlation
STX is a highly correlated altcoin to BTC; BTC in downtrend at $67,671, supertrend bearish and key supports $67,535/$64,511 in testing phase. If BTC fails to break $68,102 resistance, altcoin pressure increases, weakening STX’s $0.2415 support. If BTC drops to $62,910, STX bearish target $0.1457 accelerates. Conversely, BTC breakout above $70,680+ supports STX bullish BOS. Rising BTC dominance is a caution signal for altcoins, directly impacting STX structure.
Structural Outlook and Expectations
Overall structural outlook is bearish: LH/LL downtrend intact, consolidation around $0.24 may offer short-term bounce but no reversal without $0.2594 BOS. In risk-off environment (parallel to BTC downtrend), LL continuation likely; even if $0.2415 holds, higher timeframe resistances dominant. Trade plan: Short below $0.2415 for bearish scenario, long above $0.2594+ for bullish. Market structure is dynamic, regular MTF checks recommended. Check detailed data in STX Spot Analysis and STX Futures Analysis.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/stx-technical-analysis-22-february-2026-market-structure
