CoreWeave (CRWV) Stock: Is the 8% Drop a Buying Opportunity Before Earnings?

TLDR

• CRWV fell over 8% in Friday pre-market after Morgan Stanley assigned a Hold rating with a $99 price target
• Senior insider Brannin McBee sold ~133,330 shares on February 17, cutting his stake by 29%
• Blue Owl Capital failed to secure funding for a planned CoreWeave data center deal
• Q4 earnings land February 26; analysts forecast $1.53B revenue, up 105% year over year
• Wall Street consensus sits at “Moderate Buy” with an average price target of $125.45

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CoreWeave (CRWV) stock dropped more than 8% in Friday pre-market trading, sliding to around $90 after closing at $97.14 the day before.

CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock, CRWV

Three things hit at once: a Morgan Stanley Hold rating, a wave of insider selling, and news that Blue Owl Capital failed to lock down funding for a planned data center deal with the company.

Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss started coverage with an “equal weight” rating and a $99 price target. He pointed to operational problems in a tight supply market and said the company has struggled to meet customer demand. Some investors have already taken that issue to court.

Weiss said Morgan Stanley would need to see active power scaled beyond 850 megawatts, past data center delays resolved, construction projects turning into real capital spending, and a wider customer base before changing its view.

Insider Selling Raises Eyebrows

On February 17, senior insider Brannin McBee sold roughly 133,330 shares at around $91.73 to $91.81 per share. That cut his ownership stake by about 29%. He still holds 248,664 shares valued at around $22.8 million, per SEC filings.

The sales landed just days before the company’s Q4 earnings report, scheduled for Thursday, February 26.

Analysts expect revenue of $1.53 billion for the quarter, a 105% jump year over year. Adjusted loss per share is forecast at $0.50, narrowing from a $0.80 loss in the same period last year. Weiss noted that expectations heading into the print are already running high.

Nvidia recently committed to a $2 billion deal tied to CoreWeave building over 5 gigawatts of capacity by 2030, which gives the bull case some backing.

The Numbers Behind the Debate

CoreWeave carries a reported backlog of around $55 billion, which provides some forward revenue visibility. But sitting alongside that is roughly $29 billion in debt and a current ratio of just 0.49.

Deutsche Bank recently upgraded the stock to Buy with a $140 target. Nvidia’s latest 13F filing showed it still holds a position in CoreWeave. The broader Wall Street consensus sits at “Moderate Buy” across 17 buys, 12 holds, and one sell.

Several securities fraud class action lawsuits have been filed against the company, adding litigation risk to the mix.

The stock’s 50-day moving average is $86.50. Its 200-day moving average sits at $101.09. CRWV is up roughly 142% over the past year.

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