Every Ethereum Whale Cohort Now Underwater: ETH Capitulation Marking The Final Bottom?

Ethereum continues to struggle below the $2,000 level as persistent selling pressure and elevated uncertainty weigh on broader crypto market sentiment. Despite occasional rebound attempts, price action remains fragile, with volatility still elevated after months of corrective momentum. The inability to decisively reclaim this psychological threshold has reinforced caution among traders, particularly as liquidity conditions tighten and macro uncertainty continues to influence risk appetite across digital assets.

Recent analysis from Darkfost adds further context to the current market structure. According to the data, the ongoing correction is now affecting all investor cohorts, including Ethereum’s largest holders. Notably, the unrealized profit ratio for whale groups has shifted into negative territory across the board. Wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 ETH show an unrealized profit ratio of approximately -0.21, while those with 10,000 to 100,000 ETH stand near -0.18. Even the largest cohort — addresses holding more than 100,000 ETH — has slipped into negative territory around -0.08.

This development is notable because Ethereum has not yet revisited its April lows, suggesting the depth of unrealized losses is expanding earlier than in some previous corrective phases. Such conditions can increase market sensitivity, as even traditionally resilient holders may reassess positioning amid prolonged volatility.

Whale Stress Raises Capitulation Risk While Bottom Formation Signals Emerge

Darkfost further notes that if Ethereum extends its decline, large holders could face increasing financial pressure. Sustained downside would deepen unrealized losses across whale cohorts, potentially forcing some participants to reduce exposure or liquidate portions of their holdings. Historically, such capitulation events among large investors tend to amplify short-term volatility, particularly when liquidity conditions are already fragile.

However, despite the negative profit ratios now visible across whale groups, Ethereum has so far managed to stabilize above recent local support zones. This relative resilience suggests that, while sentiment remains cautious, immediate large-scale distribution from whales has not yet materialized. The distinction is important because unrealized losses alone do not necessarily trigger selling unless accompanied by liquidity stress, leverage pressure, or broader market shocks.

Periods in which major holders experience stress have often coincided with medium-term bottom formation phases in previous cycles. As weaker hands exit and leverage unwinds, markets sometimes transition into accumulation regimes characterized by lower volatility and gradual stabilization.

Still, this interpretation should be approached cautiously. Whale positioning is only one element of market structure, and confirmation typically requires improving liquidity, stronger spot demand, and supportive macro conditions before a sustained recovery can take hold.

Ethereum Price Structure Remains Fragile Below Key Averages

Ethereum continues to trade under clear technical pressure, with the weekly chart showing a sustained inability to reclaim the $2,000 region decisively. Following the sharp rejection from the 2025 highs near the $4,800 zone, price action has transitioned into a sequence of lower highs and weakening rebounds, typically associated with corrective market phases rather than accumulation-led recoveries.

Technically, ETH is currently positioned below several major moving averages that previously acted as dynamic support. These levels now function as resistance, limiting upside attempts unless a strong reclaim occurs with expanding volume. The recent decline toward the $1,900 area reflects persistent selling pressure, while repeated failures near the mid-$2,000 range reinforce cautious market sentiment.

Volume activity has moderated compared with the impulsive rally phase, suggesting reduced speculative participation. While declining volume during corrections can sometimes signal seller exhaustion, confirmation of stabilization usually requires sustained buying interest rather than temporary rebounds.

From a structural perspective, immediate support appears concentrated near the recent local lows around the $1,800 region, while resistance remains clustered between roughly $2,200 and $2,600. Until Ethereum reclaims these levels convincingly, the broader technical outlook remains vulnerable, with consolidation or further downside still plausible.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com