Here’s what a US-Iran war could mean for the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum

The US under President Donald Trump’s orders could soon strike Iran and that’s not great news for cryptocurrencies.

Indeed, analysts told DL News that another Middle Eastern conflict could prompt investors to further derisk, potentially bringing more pain to crypto investors.

“We’re already starting to see the uncertainty there weigh on crypto and equity markets,” Carlos Guzman of GSR Research said.

The warning comes as Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market have lost about half their total value since October, with many analysts saying things could get worse from here.

Past conflicts

Bitcoin has long-been touted a hedge against global uncertainty, be that macroeconomic or geopolitical.

But history has proven that the top cryptocurrency has failed to live up to that title.

Just last year, when tensions flared between neighbours Israel and Iran — with later involvement from the US — investors shorted Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s price fell sharply following Israel’s June 2025 “Operation Midnight Hammer” strike and dipped again later that month when the US joined in.

Crypto prices then recovered after Trump signalled a pause in attacks.

This time, though, things are different.

Bitcoin and Ethereum have slumped severely following a brutal October $19 billion liquidation event that has continued to unwind.

Bitcoin was trading above $100,000 per coin during last year’s strikes and now trades around $67,000.

“In the current context of a bear market, geopolitical headwinds would exacerbate selling pressure on digital assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, causing prices to decline further,” Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s head of research, told DL News.

How low can we go?

Regardless of a war, experts added, the bottom is not in, and a large war in the Middle East could do more harm than good.

“I don’t think the bottom’s in at all,” Greg Magadini, Amberdata’s director of derivatives, said of Bitcoin’s price.

“A true bottom requires ownership to change hands, and right now it’s kind of like all the same people — it’s like, who’s the next buyer?”

He added that a US strike on Iran would be a de-risking event that immediately sends Bitcoin nosediving, while gold and treasuries would benefit.

How low could Bitcoin go? Sebastian Serrano, the CEO of crypto exchange Ripio, forecasted Bitcoin dropping as low as $53,000 if bearish momentum following a strike were to continue.

“That said, if Bitcoin holds its ground and fails to move lower despite the macro headwinds, that would actually be a notably strong bullish signal — demonstrating real resilience in the face of risk-off sentiment,” he said.

Mathew Di Salvo is a news correspondent with DL News. Got a tip? Email at [e-mail].