Current analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s next confirmed bull market will begin only after a key on-chain indicator flips into deep negative territory, signaling maximum market stress among long-term holders.
The metric in focus is the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) for long-term holders, which measures the average unrealized profit or loss of the most resilient participants. The NUPL is currently at 0.36, indicating that long-term holders remain in aggregate profit.
Alphractal’s CEO and analyst, Joao Wedson, believes the decisive signal will emerge when this figure turns negative, at which point even the most convinced investors will be holding unrealized losses. This phase typically indicates maximum depression, seller exhaustion, and coin transfer into stronger hands.
For instance, this transition preceded the start of a new bull run in prior cycles, reinforcing the view that durable opportunities form during capitulation rather than euphoria.
However, on-chain signals from CryptoQuant suggest structural weakness is building. The platform notes that Bitcoin’s Adjusted SOPR has fallen into the 0.92 to 0.94 range, levels that in 2019 and 2023 coincided with deep corrective phases during which traders were consistently in the red. Readings below 1 indicate loss realization, and multiple historical cycle lows formed near 0.92–0.93.
Unlike mid-cycle pullbacks that quickly reclaimed 1, the current structure reveals sustained weakness. If aSOPR fails to recover above 1 soon, the probability increases that the market is shifting into a broader bear phase rather than experiencing a routine correction.
CryptoQuant also notes that true bottoms typically form after deeper compression, peak loss realization, and full selling exhaustion.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $67,783, up 0.91% over the past 24 hours, slightly outperforming the market’s 1.94% decline. Moreover, the market is divided between structural deterioration and strategic accumulation, as ETF outflows pressure prices and corporate adoption supports long-term fundamentals.
Source: https://zycrypto.com/analyst-bitcoins-next-bull-run-starts-when-this-indicator-turns-red/
