Substack Partners With Polymarket for Live Prediction Markets

Substack has partnered with Polymarket to let writers embed live prediction market data directly into their posts, turning forecasts on elections, AI, and the economy into real time, updateable context.

Key Takeaways

• Substack writers can now embed live Polymarket markets inside the Substack editor, including dynamic probability tables that update in real time.
• Substack says 1 in 5 of its top 250 highest revenue publications already started using Polymarket data for coverage tied to elections, AI expectations, economic policy, and even entertainment events like the Oscars.
• The move lands as state level legal questions around prediction markets grow, while CFTC Chair Mike Selig has said he plans to fight state laws and litigation that try to impose rules on prediction markets.
• Polymarket is also sponsoring a cohort of Substack creators who adopt the tools, expanding its presence beyond trading and into independent media.

What Happened?

Substack and Polymarket announced a new partnership that brings Polymarket forecasting data into Substack posts through built in embeds. The companies say the goal is to make independent journalism more interactive by letting readers see live market probabilities alongside reporting and analysis.

How the Substack Integration Works?

The biggest change is simple for writers and visible for readers. Under the agreement, Substack creators can embed live Polymarket markets directly inside the Substack editor without leaving the drafting screen. That includes dynamic probability tables that shift in real time as traders buy and sell shares tied to specific outcomes.

In practice, this means a writer covering a presidential race can include a market showing current odds for each candidate, and those numbers can change as new information hits the public. The same goes for coverage of macroeconomic forecasts and AI milestones, where expectations can swing quickly and where readers often want more than static predictions.

Polymarket framed the partnership as a way to strengthen reporting with constantly updating signals, saying, “journalism is better when it’s backed by live markets.”

Why Substack Is Leaning Into Prediction Data?

Substack is pitching prediction markets as a new kind of information layer that fits the platform’s creator model. Substack co founder Chris Best described prediction markets as an emerging technology that aggregates real time estimates of what will happen next, and he drew a direct comparison to how financial markets price information.

Best wrote:

“

Prediction markets are an emerging technology that aggregates real time estimates of what will happen in the future.
While the stock market lets people trade shares of companies, and the price reflects an estimate of how much a business is worth, Polymarket lets people trade shares of future events, like elections, economic trends, and scientific breakthroughs. The price reflects a market estimate of how likely an outcome is to happen.

Chris BestCo-Founder – Substack

Substack also pointed to early adoption as proof that creators want this kind of data. The company said 1 in 5 of Substack’s top 250 highest revenue publications has already started using Polymarket data to produce content tied to current events including election timelines, shifting expectations around AI, debates over economic policy, and speculation on events like the Oscars.

Polymarket’s Media Push Goes Beyond Embeds

For Polymarket, the Substack partnership is not just a product feature. It is also a media expansion strategy. Alongside the editor integration, Polymarket is sponsoring a cohort of Substack creators who adopt the new tools, which helps place prediction markets in front of audiences that might never open a trading interface.

Polymarket already publishes “The Oracle by Polymarket,” a newsletter that highlights notable market moves and emerging trends. With Substack embeds, the company can extend that idea into many independent publications, effectively turning prediction markets into a shared reference point across creators.

Substack, meanwhile, has also rolled out native tools meant to help writers share, analyze, and debate prediction data, according to materials posted in its Help Center. The pitch is that crowd sourced forecasting can add transparency and immediacy to commentary and reporting, especially in fast moving storylines.

Legal Questions Are Still Hanging Over Prediction Markets

The timing is notable because prediction markets are facing more scrutiny. The partnership comes as more states have questioned the legality of prediction markets. At the same time, CFTC Chair Mike Selig has said he plans to fight against state laws and litigation aimed at imposing rules on prediction markets.

That tension matters for publishers because it shapes how stable these tools will be over time. If prediction markets are pushed into new regulatory frameworks, platforms and creators may have to adjust how they present, monetize, or even access these markets.

CoinLaw’s Takeaway

I see this as a smart move for both sides, but it comes with a big asterisk. In my experience, readers love numbers because numbers feel decisive, even when they are not. Live market odds can add useful context, especially when a story is moving fast and everyone is guessing. But I found that probabilities can also become a crutch if writers treat them like truth instead of a signal.

If Substack creators use these embeds as one input, not the headline, the result could be sharper analysis and more honest uncertainty. If they use it as a substitute for reporting, it could turn serious coverage into a scoreboard. The upside is real, but the responsibility is on the writer to explain what the market is and what it is not.

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