TWT is approaching critical support levels while maintaining its falling trend structure (LH/LL); if $0.5327 breaks, could a bearish BOS be triggered, or will we see a recovery above $0.5494?
Market Structure Overview
TWT’s current market structure clearly characterizes a downtrend. The recent lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) pattern indicates that the price carries overall downward momentum. The current price is trading at $0.55, reflecting negative pressure with a 24-hour change of %-2.29. The range is stuck between $0.54 – $0.57, and the Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal along with the $0.68 resistance level. Remaining below EMA20 ($0.59) reinforces the short-term bearish structure. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 8 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 2 supports/1 resistance on 1D, 2S/2R on 3D, and 2S/3R distribution on 1W. This structure requires lower lows to be maintained for trend continuation, and higher high (HH) formation for a change. RSI at 37.73 is wandering in the neutral zone near oversold, while the positive histogram in MACD gives a bullish divergence signal, though the overall structure remains dominantly bearish.
Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?
Uptrend Signals
For an uptrend, the formation of higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) structure is essential. In the current structure, a sustained break above the last swing high at $0.5494 (64/100 score) (bullish BOS) and new HL formation could signal CHoCH (Change of Character). The positive MACD histogram shows a slight bullish shift in momentum; this could open the door to continuation targeting $0.8215 if the $0.5327 support holds. However, remaining below EMA20 weakens these signals. Breaking the strong resistances (3R) on the 1W timeframe would be critical for an overall uptrend reversal.
Downtrend Risk
The downtrend is strong with the LH/LL pattern: the price failing to hold below the last lower high at $0.5494 and progressing toward lower lows supports bearish continuation. A break of the $0.5327 (74/100) swing low would trigger a bearish BOS, leading to targets at $0.4393 and ultimately $0.2152. RSI at 37.73 indicates potential continued selling pressure, while BTC’s downtrend amplifies general weakness in altcoins. Supertrend is bearish and EMA structure is negative; this predicts the short-term LH/LL cycle will continue.
Structure Break (BOS) Levels
Structure break (Break of Structure – BOS) levels confirm trend changes. For bullish BOS: a close above the $0.5494 swing high and new HH formation are required; this tests the $0.59 EMA20 and confirms CHoCH. Additionally, breaking the 1D resistance provides MTF alignment. For bearish BOS: a close below the $0.5327 swing low is critical; this level (74/100 score) carries high importance, and a break could trigger a quick drop to $0.4393 (67/100). 3D/1W supports should also be monitored. The trend does not invalidate without breaking these levels; for example, in the bullish scenario, failure to hold $0.5327 would break the structure.
Swing Points and Their Importance
Recent Swing Highs
The last swing high at $0.5494 (64/100 score) is critical as the current resistance and LH confirmation. This level also plays a role in testing the range top ($0.57); its break is key for bullish BOS. Previous highs form a resistance cluster in MTF (1W 3R), so rejection would accelerate the LL cycle. Swing highs are the first targets in trend reversals; above $0.5494 signals a momentum shift.
Recent Swing Lows
The last swing low at $0.5327 (74/100) is a strong support and LL base point. Holding this level offers opportunity for HL, while a break activates bearish targets. The lower level at $0.4393 (67/100) represents a deeper correction. Swing lows act as support; MTF 1D/3D supports (total 6S) strengthen this structure. $0.5327 is only %3 below the current $0.55; a quick test is expected.
Bitcoin Correlation
BTC is sustaining its downtrend at $66,809 level (%-0.64 24h), with Supertrend bearish and rising dominance posing risk for altcoins. TWT is highly correlated with BTC; if BTC breaks the $65,143 support (watch $62,910), TWT’s $0.5327 bearish BOS accelerates. If BTC resistances at $66,959/$70,639 are broken, relief could come, supporting TWT’s test of $0.5494. A BTC drop below $60,000 makes TWT’s $0.2152 target realistic; altcoin caution mode is active.
Structural Outlook and Expectations
The overall structural outlook is bearish: LH/LL downtrend dominates, with $0.5327 as the critical pivot. For bullish invalidation, $0.5494 BOS + HL is required; otherwise, a drop to $0.4393 is likely. MTF levels (8 strong) maintain structural integrity, and while MACD divergence is notable, EMA/Supertrend supports the bearish bias. Investors should monitor these levels for spot TWT Spot Analysis and futures TWT Futures Analysis. Trend continuation comes with lower lows, reversal with upper BOS; volatility is high, risk management is essential. This analysis educationally explains market structures: HH/HL bullish, LH/LL bearish; BOS/CHoCH are the keys to change.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/twt-technical-analysis-february-19-2026-market-structure
