Sui Price Faces 20% Downside Risk Despite Record Developer Growth

Key Insights

• Sui ecosystem expanded with 5,500 code commits, highest among all Layer 1 blockchains.
• RSI bearish divergence between Feb. 6 and Feb. 16 warns of pullback despite CMF crossing above zero.
• Sui price needs a clean break above $1.05, or 20% downside risk targets $0.75, Fibonacci support level.

Sui price gained ground despite a 40% decline over the past three months. The ecosystem expanded through Wanchain integration, Certora security partnership, and Ethena Labs launching suiUSDe on mainnet.

Developer activity hit 5,500 code commits in 90 days, making it the highest among all Layer 1 blockchains. But one technical signal is flashing a warning that integrations alone cannot override.

Sui Expands Ecosystem With Record Developer Activity

The network added meaningful partnerships recently. Certora partnered with Sui for smart contract security and verification. Wanchain integration expanded cross-chain connectivity, bringing new liquidity pathways. Ethena Labs launched the suiUSDe stablecoin directly on the Sui mainnet. Coinbase added token standard support while DEEP and WAL tokens received new exchange listings.

On-chain activity backed the narrative. The Sui ecosystem generated approximately $101,000 in app revenue over a single 24-hour period. 27 active DeFi protocols now operate on the network.

Developer Activity High | Source: Santiment

Developers pushed approximately 5,500 code commits over the past 90 days, placing Sui above every other Layer 1 blockchain in that metric. This level of developer engagement typically precedes sustained network growth.

Sui price is at around $0.9878 inside a falling broadening wedge pattern on the 12-hour chart. A broadening wedge forms when price makes higher highs and lower lows simultaneously, creating an expanding range.

The pattern is technically bullish, suggesting an eventual upside breakout, but the expanding volatility makes timing unpredictable. Price touched the lower boundary near $0.87 in early February before recovering to current levels.

RSI Warning Signals Risk for Sui Price

Chaikin Money Flow crossed above zero, reaching 0.03 on the 12-hour chart. This positive reading suggests large money started flowing back into the Sui price after weeks of outflows.

A CMF above zero typically indicates institutional accumulation building beneath the surface. The reading provides some hope that the recent recovery has substance behind it. But the lower high pattern does add an element of concern.

But the RSI divergence tells a different story. Between Feb. 6 and Feb. 16, Sui price made a lower high on the chart. During that exact same period, the RSI indicator made a higher high. This is bearish divergence. It signals momentum is fading during the recovery phase, even though the price briefly pushed higher. Buyers are losing conviction at resistance levels while sellers prepare to step back in.

Sui And RSI Divergence | Source: TradingView

The divergence matters because CMF alone cannot sustain a rally without momentum confirmation. Large money can flow in quietly, but if RSI shows weakening buying pressure at higher levels, the recovery stalls. Both indicators need to align for a sustained move.

Right now, they are pointing in opposite directions, creating uncertainty about the next direction for the Sui price.

Open Interest Drop Softens Downside Risk

Open interest in Sui futures dropped from $203.97 million to $200.74 million on Feb. 16, while the price simultaneously improved. This divergence between rising price and falling open interest shows leveraged traders closed positions rather than adding new longs during the recovery.

Less leverage in the system means any pullback from RSI divergence would be driven by spot selling rather than forced liquidations, making the downside less severe than leverage-driven drops typically are.

Open Interest Drops | Source: Santiment

Sui price needs a clean break above $1.05 to confirm a bullish reversal and neutralize the RSI divergence warning. That level represents key resistance where sellers previously stepped in aggressively. Breaking above it would signal that buyers had finally overwhelmed the resistance and opened the path toward higher levels within the broadening wedge.

Failure to reclaim $1.05 keeps the 20% downside risk alive. A move toward $0.75 would represent a significant correction from current levels and test a major Fibonacci support zone.

Breaking below $0.57 would signal the broadening wedge structure turned decisively bearish, regardless of how strong the ecosystem fundamentals appear. Sui’s price sits at a crossroads, where integrations have brought optimism, but one technical signal still demands respect.

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