Although TON is in a short-term downtrend, the positive MACD histogram signals hidden momentum strengthening; RSI at 47.69 is balanced in the neutral zone, while trading below EMA20 maintains bearish pressure.
Trend Status and Momentum Analysis
TON’s current price is at the 1.43 dollar level and shows a slight 0.97% decline over the last 24 hours. The daily range stayed limited in the 1.41-1.45 band, with volume at medium levels of 36.07 million dollars. The overall trend direction is confirmed as down, with the Supertrend indicator giving a bearish signal and the 1.66 dollar resistance prominent. However, momentum indicators show mixed signals: the MACD histogram is positive and exhibits a bullish structure, while the price continues below EMA20 (1.44 dollars). This situation indicates that short-term weakness dominates but underlying momentum may strengthen. In multi-timeframe (MTF) confluence, 11 strong levels have been detected; 1D shows 2 supports/3 resistances, 3D shows 2S/1R, and 1W shows 2S/2R distribution. This confluence indicates that trend strength is being tested and will clarify based on the breakout direction. Volume confirmation is not yet strong, but the volume increase during declines does not support a distribution pattern; instead, it gives an accumulation impression.
RSI Indicator: Buy or Sell?
RSI Divergence Analysis
RSI (14) is currently at 47.69 and positioned in the neutral zone. This value neither indicates overbought (70+) nor oversold (30-) conditions, but despite recent price declines, RSI not dropping below the 40s carries hidden bullish divergence potential. There is no regular bearish divergence on the daily chart; while price makes new lows, RSI holds at similar levels, indicating limited momentum loss. A slight hidden bullish divergence is observed on the 4-hour chart: as price makes a new low below EMA20, RSI forms a higher low. This suggests the trend is weakening and setting the stage for a potential momentum surge. Confirmation of the divergence requires RSI to rise above 55 and volume increase.
Overbought/Oversold Zones
RSI at 47.69 is far from overbought/oversold zones, confirming the market is in a consolidation phase. Recent brief spikes above 60 followed by quick pullbacks showed unsustainable momentum. The current neutral level may protect against an oversold trap as it approaches support levels (1.3702 and 1.4260). If RSI drops below 30 and rebounds with bullish divergence, strong buying momentum could be triggered; conversely, 70+ with bearish divergence would increase selling pressure.
MACD Signals and Histogram Dynamics
MACD status is reported as bullish, with the histogram positive and expanding. The distance between the signal line and MACD line is increasing, indicating strengthening momentum. On the daily chart, histogram bars are growing above the zero line, with positive expansion in the last 3 candles – despite price declines, this signals hidden buying power underneath. In terms of crossover, the MACD line has not crossed above the signal line, but the histogram’s momentum serves as a pre-crossover warning. On the 4-hour chart, the histogram starting to shrink warns of short-term correction, but the overall structure remains positive. For a bearish signal, the histogram must approach zero and crossover downward; the current dynamics reflect bullish momentum accumulation within the downtrend. If supported by volume, it could gain momentum toward the 1.4515 resistance.
EMA Systems and Trend Strength
Short-Term EMAs
Price is trading below EMA20 (1.44 dollars), confirming the short-term bearish trend. There is congestion between EMA10 and EMA20, with ribbon contraction indicating reduced trend strength. During the recent decline, EMAs did not act as support and pushed price lower. A close above EMA20 is critical for short-term momentum; if realized, bullish trend would begin with ribbon expansion.
Medium/Long-Term EMA Supports
EMA50 (around 1.50) and EMA200 (1.60+) are acting as resistances, with medium-term trend weak. Ribbon dynamics support the downtrend, with long-term EMAs sloping downward. However, as price approaches the 1.3702 support, EMA100 (around 1.42) may be tested; if it holds, momentum recovery is possible. In trend strength measurement, EMA ribbon contraction signals impending volatility increase.
Bitcoin Correlation
Bitcoin is at 68,216 dollars with a 0.32% decline and in a downtrend, Supertrend bearish. BTC supports at 68,050-65,415-62,910; resistances at 69,162-71,708. BTC dominance is risky for altcoins, and due to TON’s high correlation with BTC (0.85+), a BTC decline could push TON to the 1.37 support. If BTC breaks above 69,162 resistance, relief comes for TON; BTC levels should be monitored for TON Spot Analysis and TON Futures Analysis. Caution prevails in altcoins; although MACD is positive in TON’s momentum, BTC pressure dominates.
Momentum Result and Expectations
Momentum analysis is mixed: RSI neutral with divergence potential, MACD histogram positive expansion giving bullish signal, but EMA and Supertrend maintain bearish trend. Volume confirmation lacking, MTF confluence resistances (1.5191 strong) should be tested. Bullish target 2.0492, bearish 0.8408; short-term, do not break 1.3702 support. For momentum confluence, wait for RSI 55+, MACD crossover, and above EMA20. Overall outlook neutral-bearish, but hidden strengthening could signal downtrend end. Market volatile, follow levels.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/ton-technical-analysis-february-18-2026-rsi-macd-momentum
