History says 365 days to bottom — but this Bitcoin cycle may be different

Bitcoin slid more than 2% to $67,000 on Tuesday, reflecting broader risk aversion across markets as Wall Street reopened after the Presidents’ Day holiday.

Summary

• Tech and crypto remain under pressure, while defensives are mixed, with selective strength emerging in activist-driven and travel names.
• Bitcoin has fallen about 29% over the past month, sparking debate over whether the downturn is nearing a bottom or has further to run.
• “I believe that bitcoin has already capitulated with that big move from 100k-> 60k,” one analyst says.

Crypto weakness coincided with renewed pressure on technology and software shares, where investors continued to grapple with the potential for AI-driven disruption. The Nasdaq-100 underperformed, slipping 0.3%, while the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF dropped more than 2.7% in midday New York trading. The software-focused fund has now declined in 11 of the past 15 sessions, pushing its year-to-date losses to nearly 25%.

Broader equity indices were largely flat, masking sharp divergences beneath the surface. Financial stocks rebounded after weeks of weakness, while consumer staples lagged.

Travel Tickers

Travel-linked shares stood out as a pocket of strength. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings surged 11% after Elliott Investment Management disclosed a stake exceeding 10% and signaled plans to push for strategic changes following the cruise operator’s prolonged underperformance.

Peers rallied in sympathy, with Carnival Corp. rising about 4% and Royal Caribbean Group gaining 3%.

In travel and leisure, Airbnb Inc. added 3.7%, extending momentum from last week’s earnings report. Southwest Airlines Co. jumped more than 6% following a wave of analyst upgrades from Susquehanna and UBS.

But what about Bitcoin?

The top cryptocurrency has fallen about 29% over the past month, sparking debate over whether the downturn is nearing a bottom or has further to run.

Trader Altcoin Sherpa pointed to past cycles for comparison, noting that both the 2017–2018 and 2021–2022 bear markets saw steep 75–85% drawdowns and took roughly a year from all-time high to final bottom. Each cycle ended with a sharp capitulation event — including the 2018 plunge from $6,000 to $3,000 and the 2022 crash tied to FTX — followed by several months of accumulation.

However, Sherpa argues the current cycle may differ. The 2024–2025 rally was slower and more consolidation-heavy than prior vertical surges, and structural factors such as spot ETFs, reduced speculative excess, stronger support in the $50,000–$70,000 range, and already-flushed altcoin froth could shorten the bear market timeline, potentially avoiding a full 365-day decline.

“I believe that bitcoin has already capitulated with that big move from 100k-> 60k,” Sherpa says. “I believe we are now in the ACCUMULATION phase of the cycle. Accumulation can last anywhere from a few weeks to several months.”

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