Bitcoin Stalls at a Critical Stress Zone as On-Chain Data Warns the Bottom May Not Be In Yet

Bitcoin has remained rangebound between $60,000 and $70,000, as choppy trading continued to reflect fears of a further downside move. Fresh data highlights risk building near Short-Term Holder Realized Price bands.

These areas have historically witnessed the start of accumulation and emerging opportunities for global market participants.

High-Risk, High-Opportunity Zone

According to Alphractal, Bitcoin is currently trading within a tight range defined by the Short-Term Holder Realized Price, and its price action is trapped between key support and resistance levels. In recent weeks, BTC has closely respected the -1σ and -1.5σ deviation bands.

Previous instances reveal that when the crypto asset breaks below the lower blue deviation band, the market typically sees one of two outcomes. Either the formation of a local bottom or a deeper capitulation phase, followed by accumulation. These deviation bands have consistently acted as natural support and resistance across multiple market cycles. To top that, the -1.5σ level has repeatedly represented periods of maximum stress, where selling pressure from short-term holders intensifies, and longer-term participants begin accumulating.

Against this backdrop of high short-term holder stress, Alphractal founder Joao Wedson pointed to a longer-term metric that may indicate the market is not yet at a historical turning point. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric for long-term holders, which tracks whether the most resilient investors are sitting on unrealized gains or losses, currently stands at 0.36, which means that long-term holders remain in profit despite recent volatility.

Upon looking at past cycles, Wedson found that the clearest late bear-market signal tends to emerge only when this metric turns negative, a condition associated with extreme pessimism and seller exhaustion. Such phases have marked the end of bear markets, rather than the start of a new bull cycle.

Miners Reduce Exchange Exposure

As Bitcoin trades near crucial stress levels, further on-chain data shows miners adjusting their positioning amid ongoing market pressure. Data shared by CryptoQuant depicts a significant change in miner behavior as more than 36,000 Bitcoin were withdrawn from exchanges since the beginning of February.

The pace of withdrawals has accelerated compared to previous months, which points to changes in holding strategies or liquidity management. Of this total, over 12,000 BTC were withdrawn from Binance, while more than 24,000 BTC were spread across other exchanges, indicating that it’s not an isolated activity. Such movements are typically associated with transfers to long-term storage, as miners move assets off exchanges into cold wallets, and reduce immediate sell-side supply.

Daily withdrawals peaked above 6,000 BTC, the highest level since November, and significantly exceeded January levels. This means that miners may be repositioning against the backdrop of the current market uncertainty.

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