Bitcoin Bear Markets Could Be History, Says Trump’s Adviser

But according to David Bailey, entrepreneur, Bitcoin Magazine founder, and crypto adviser to U.S. President Donald Trump, those days may be behind us.

Bailey: Institutional Adoption Changes Everything

In a weekend post on X, Bailey declared that a new era has begun, arguing that the arrival of major institutions eliminates the conditions that produced past bear markets.

“This is the first time we’ve seen real institutional buy-in,” he wrote. “Sovereigns, banks, insurers, corporates, pensions — every sector is coming. We’ve barely touched 0.01% of the total addressable market. We’re going so much higher. Dream big.”

Bailey has been a vocal proponent of Bitcoin’s role in global finance and is credited with shaping Trump’s pro-BTC policy shift. He insists that earlier institutional moves were “marginal bets,” whereas today’s involvement reflects serious allocation.

Analysts Push Back

Not everyone is convinced. Several crypto investment managers told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin still faces plenty of headwinds that could drag it back into a bear phase.

CK Zheng, CIO of ZX Squared Capital, noted that Bitcoin remains closely tied to traditional markets: “If equities fall into a bear market, crypto will follow.” He argued that Powell’s recent pivot toward lower interest rates makes a near-term downturn less likely, but the correlation risk is ever-present.

Others see temporary relief but not a permanent escape. Pav Hundal, lead analyst at Swyftx, said: “The path of least resistance is higher, but macro shocks come when you least expect them. Rates could still rise again, and that would be a catalyst for correction.”

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When Could the Next Bear Market Hit?

Ryan McMillin, CIO of Merkle Tree Capital, projected that Bitcoin may peak in mid-2026 before a liquidity reversal triggers a “mild bear market.” He highlighted risks from overleveraged institutional players and regulatory shocks, both of which could unwind gains faster than expected.

At the same time, McMillin admitted a scenario exists where no deep bear market arrives at all. He pointed to gold after its ETF launch in the early 2000s, when financialization fueled an eight-year rally without a major crash.

Cycles or Supercycle?

The debate boils down to whether Bitcoin is still bound by its historic four-year cycle, or whether institutional adoption has created the conditions for a “supercycle” — steady appreciation with only shallow corrections.

If Bailey is right, the painful crashes of 2018 and 2022 may be relics of the past. But if analysts are correct, a cooling-off period may still be on the horizon, with 2026 marked as the likeliest test of the “no more bear markets” thesis.

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