Bitcoin Price Prediction: Bitcoin Tests 0.382 Fibonacci as IBIT Signals Mounting Bearish Pressure

The pullback has placed traders’ attention firmly on Fibonacci retracement levels and ETF-related flows that may influence near-term direction.

At the time of writing, BTC price is hovering around $66,500, reflecting persistent selling pressure following its failure to reclaim overhead resistance.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis Today: Fibonacci Levels in Focus

From a structural standpoint, analysts are closely monitoring retracement levels drawn from the August 2024 low near $49,000 to the October 2025 Bitcoin all-time high of $126,199.

The 78.6% Fibonacci level sits around $65,520. A decisive close below that threshold could expose the February swing low near $60,000. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped toward 30, signaling that bearish momentum is intensifying. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator has confirmed a bearish crossover, reinforcing the short-term downside bias.

Bitcoin may hold at 0.382 for a 2027 uptrend, drop to 0.236 in a deeper pullback, or rebound toward $100K before resuming bearish trends. Source: TradingView

However, the broader cycle narrative remains more nuanced. Bitcoin may stabilize near the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement before attempting to resume a longer-term uptrend into 2027. According to this view, the previous cycle peak lacked the euphoric conditions typically seen at major tops.

A more defensive scenario envisions a deeper retracement toward the 0.236 Fibonacci level. Bitcoin remains a highly volatile asset, and sharp moves driven by unexpected macro or market events are not uncommon. This backdrop reinforces the importance of disciplined risk management and cautious positioning, particularly when price approaches major technical inflection points.

An alternative, though less favored, projection points to a rebound from the 0.5 retracement level, potentially driving Bitcoin BTC price back toward $100,000 before another broader consolidation phase resumes.

Short-Term Bullish Patterns Offer Counterbalance

Despite the recent decline, not all signals are bearish. On the four-hour chart, trader TokenTalk3x highlighted that BTC has broken above a descending channel near $70,000, stating that the bias remains “heavily long.” This breakout suggests that intraday momentum could temporarily counter the broader daily downtrend.

The 4-hour BTC/USDT chart shows a bullish breakout above a descending channel near $70,000, highlighted by green zones indicating previous support levels that held during consolidation. Source: TradingView

Similarly, market commentator Ash Crypto observed that BTC is forming a bullish “Adam and Eve” double bottom pattern on the weekly chart. According to classical technical analysis references such as Thomas Bulkowski’s research, the formation has historically produced meaningful upside follow-through in bullish environments. A confirmed breakout above $72,000 could open the door toward $80,000, based on measured move projections.

For now, though, these upside scenarios require confirmation. A sustained recovery above $73,072 would be needed to shift short-term sentiment decisively.

IBIT and Bitcoin ETF Flows Add Pressure

Institutional positioning also plays a key role in shaping the current Bitcoin price prediction landscape.

The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), one of the largest spot Bitcoin ETF products, is reflecting sustained technical weakness. As of February 13, 2026, IBIT carries an overall Sell rating on daily indicators.

$IBIT was trading at around $38.97, up 5.18% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: TradingView

The ETF is trading near $38.97, well below key moving averages. The 10-day EMA and 20-day SMA remain above the price, reinforcing the prevailing downtrend. The 200-day EMA near $54.23 further highlights longer-term selling pressure.

Oscillators offer a mixed but cautious tone. RSI sits at 34.51, approaching oversold territory, while the MACD continues to signal negative momentum. Although near-oversold readings could allow for short-term stabilization, the broader structure suggests defensive positioning among institutional participants.

Given IBIT’s scale and its connection to broader BTC ETF inflows, persistent weakness in the ETF could weigh on sentiment toward the underlying asset.

Bitcoin and Macro Liquidity Cycles

Bitcoin’s price trajectory cannot be separated from global liquidity dynamics.

Historically, expansions in monetary supply and easing financial conditions have coincided with rallies in risk assets, including crypto Bitcoin markets. Conversely, tightening cycles often correspond with corrections or consolidation phases.

As central banks balance inflation risks with slowing growth, liquidity conditions remain fluid. This macro backdrop helps explain why volatility remains elevated and why some investors are hesitant to aggressively accumulate at current levels.

In this context, Fibonacci retracements are not merely technical markers—they often reflect deeper shifts in risk appetite and capital flows.

Outlook: Tactical Caution, Strategic Patience

The immediate Bitcoin price forecast hinges on whether BTC can defend the $65,500 region. A confirmed breakdown could accelerate declines toward $60,000. On the other hand, stabilization above the current support combined with a breakout over $72,000 would strengthen the bullish case.

Bitcoin is forming a bullish “Adam and Eve” double-bottom pattern, with a potential breakout above $72,000 targeting a move toward $80,000. Source: Ash Crypto via X

For now, traders are watching the charts closely. The balance between Fibonacci support, ETF weakness, and emerging bullish formations will likely determine whether the next decisive move favors recovery or further retracement.

As always in the Bitcoin market, patience and disciplined risk management remain central themes.