Coinbase Stock Soared After Earnings: Here’s Why Gains May Be Brief

Key Insights

• Coinbase’s stock price rebounded after releasing weak financial results.
• The rebound happened as most analysts slashed their targets.
• Technical analysis suggests that it may resume the downtrend.

Coinbase stock jumped more than 17% on Friday. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies rebounded at the same time. The surge followed the company’s release of its fourth-quarter financial results.

COIN jumped to a high of $164, up from the year-to-date low of $140. Still, this rebound could be brief as technical analysis suggests that it has more downside to go in the near term.

Coinbase Stock Price Jumped After Earnings

There are three main reasons why the COIN stock price jumped after releasing its financial results on Thursday. First, the rally happened after the US released an encouraging consumer inflation report.

Data shows that consumer prices continued growing at a slower pace than expected. The headline consumer inflation rate rose 2.4% in January, the lowest level in months.

The inflation report means that the figure is moving closer to the Federal Reserve target of 2.0%. This means that the Federal Reserve may deliver more interest rate cuts than expected. It also explains why the broader stock market jumped, with the Dow Jones rising by over 50 points.

Second, the inflation report explains the crypto market rebound. Bitcoin rose to $68,000. The total market capitalization of all tokens soared past $3.3 trillion. Coinbase stock does well when the crypto market is rising, as this normally leads to more volume.

Third, analysts maintained their bullish outlook for the stock despite the weak financial results. UBS Group set a target price of $265, implying a 60% jump from the current level.

Deutsche Bank set a price target of $250. BTIG, Jefferies, Benchmark, Needham, and Rosenblatt maintained targets well above the current level. Analysts show confidence despite market conditions.

Why Analysts are Bullish on COIN Stock

These analysts noted that Coinbase is one of the best companies in the crypto industry because of its diversification. Coinbase has grown its business such that it is making money in different areas.

For example, it acquired Deribit last year, a move that made it the world’s largest crypto exchange. Coinbase is a top player in the stablecoin industry through its partnership with Circle, which owns USDC.

Coinbase keeps all the USDC interest it generates on its platform. Its recent results showed that its stablecoin revenue rose to $364 million from $225 million in the same period last year.

Coinbase is also expanding its business to other industries. It recently inked a deal with Kalshi to launch a predictions market on its platform.

It is also leveraging the tokenization technology to launch its tokenized stocks on its platform. That makes it a competitor to Robinhood and other companies.

However, the main challenge is that transactions are still the biggest part of its business. Its transaction revenue reached $4 billion in 2025. The subscriptions and services segment made $2.82 billion. Transaction revenue clearly outpaced other segments.

The transaction business will likely stay under pressure in the near term. The ongoing crypto market crash drives this weakness. As a result, growth prospects remain uncertain.

Coinbase Stock Price Technical Analysis Points to a Retreat

The three-day chart shows that the COIN stock price rebounded after publishing its financial results on Thursday. This rebound happened after it dropped to the key support level at $140.

This coincided with the lowest level in September 2024 and April last year. It is common for stocks to rebound whenever they hit a crucial support.

The risk, however, is that the stock has remained below all moving averages and the Supertrend indicator. Also, there are signs that it is forming a bearish flag or a pennant pattern.

COIN stock price chart | Source: TradingView

Therefore, the Coinbase stock will likely resume the downtrend in the near term as challenges remain. More downside will be confirmed if it drops below the key support level at $140. A move below that level will point to more downside, potentially to the key support level at $100.

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