IOTA, despite showing a slight recovery with a 3.65% daily gain within the general downtrend, is stuck near critical resistance levels. This situation creates opportunities for both bullish breakout and bearish breakdown, requiring traders to carefully monitor the levels.
Current Market Situation
IOTA’s current price is hovering around 0.07 USD and has recorded a 3.65% rise in the last 24 hours, but the overall trend continues as a downtrend. Looking at technical indicators, RSI is at 42.91 in the neutral zone, while MACD shows a bullish signal with a positive histogram. However, the price continues to stay below EMA20 (0.07 USD), drawing a short-term bearish picture. The Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal, and the main resistance is positioned at 0.09 USD.
In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 7 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 1 support/2 resistances on 3D, 1 support/2 resistances on 1W. Critical supports stand out at 0.0624 (strength score 67/100) and 0.0691 (65/100), while resistances are at 0.0733 (72/100) and 0.1180 (66/100). Volume is limited at 7.72M USD, keeping volatility low but potentially paving the way for sudden moves in a breakout. There are no IOTA-specific breaking news in the market; general altcoin dynamics prevail.
Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario
How Does This Scenario Unfold?
For the bullish scenario, the 0.0733 USD resistance must first be clearly broken. This breakout should be supported by increasing volume and the daily candle must close above this level. RSI crossing above 50 and MACD histogram expanding further confirm strengthening momentum. The Supertrend turning from bearish to bullish would also be an important confirmation signal. Breaking above EMA20 in the short term would give momentum toward the medium-term EMA50 (around 0.08 USD). Sequential breaks of 1D and 3D resistances in MTF would allow testing strong levels on the weekly chart. This scenario could be triggered by general market recovery or positive developments from the IOTA ecosystem. The invalidation of the breakout occurs if the price drops below the 0.0691 support – in that case, the bull scenario becomes invalid.
Target Levels
First target is 0.1074 USD (strength score 26), which aligns with Fibonacci extension and past MTF resistance. Then the main resistance at 0.1180 USD is tested; if broken, expansion to 0.14 USD is possible. The risk/reward ratio (R/R) calculated from current levels becomes attractive around 1:2.5. Traders can manage positions by protecting the 0.0733 breakout with a trailing stop. Reaching these targets offers over 50% return potential, but only valid if triggers occur.
Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario
Risk Factors
The bearish scenario is triggered by rejection at the 0.0733 resistance. Failed upside attempts without volume increase indicate seller dominance. RSI dropping below 30 and a bearish crossover on MACD confirm momentum loss. Supertrend is already bearish; continued stay below EMA20 accelerates momentum. Main risk factors include Bitcoin weakness, general altcoin pressure, and panic selling in low-volume markets. Testing 1W supports in MTF could lead to a chain breakdown. Invalidation of this scenario occurs if the price breaks and closes above 0.0733 – at that point, the bear thesis is disproven.
Protection Levels
First protection level is 0.0691 USD; breaking it leads to 0.0624 (strong support). Main target is 0.0379 USD (strength score 22), aligned with Fibonacci retracement and MTF supports. R/R ratio is advantageous around 1:3 for short positions. Traders should protect with a stop-loss below 0.0691 after 0.0733 rejection. Dropping below these levels carries over 45% downside risk and is critical for portfolio management.
Which Scenario to Watch?
Decision point is the squeeze between 0.0733 resistance and 0.0691 support. For bulls: Voluminous breakout + RSI>50 + MACD positive expansion. For bears: Resistance rejection + voluminous downside + RSI<40. Confirmation signals include 4-hour candle closes, OBV volume increase, and volatility spike (ATR >20% higher than previous). Avoid early entries in both scenarios; wait for confirmation. Trendline breaks on daily charts will also be decisive.
Bitcoin Correlation
IOTA shows high correlation to Bitcoin among altcoins (typically 0.8+). BTC is currently in a downtrend at 69,699 USD, with Supertrend bearish despite a 1.10% daily rise. BTC supports at 68,836 / 65,415 / 60,000 USD are critical; a break of any strengthens IOTA’s bear scenario. Resistances at 71,248 / 75,163 / 78,145 USD – if BTC surpasses these, it opens room for IOTA bull targets. If BTC Dominance rises (altcoin pressure), IOTA bear scenario stays in focus. Prioritize monitoring BTC movements, as they create 80+% impact.
Conclusion and Monitoring Notes
IOTA at a critical juncture: Both scenarios equally likely; traders should monitor trigger levels and confirmation signals. Daily volume increase, MTF alignment, and BTC correlation are key monitoring points. For more details, visit the IOTA spot market page and IOTA futures page. This analysis is a tool to develop your own decisions – markets can change anytime; prioritize risk management.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/iota-technical-analysis-february-14-2026-will-it-rise-or-fall
