AVAX is approaching a critical support test at the $9.21 level, with RSI at 37 giving an oversold signal; however, could Bitcoin’s downtrend hinder the altcoin rally?
Market Overview and Current Position
Avalanche (AVAX) reached $9.21 with a 4.07% rise in the last 24 hours, trading in the 8.74-9.26 range. Daily volume points to $184 million, while the overall trend continues downward. Although this move gives a short-term recovery signal, the dominant bearish pressure across the market keeps AVAX below EMA20 ($9.87). The MTF (multi-timeframe) alignment on the weekly chart identifies a total of 10 strong levels across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes, providing investors with a clear framework: 2 supports and 2 resistances on 1D, similar distribution on 3D, and on 1W, 2 supports and 5 resistances stand out.
The market is highlighting these technical levels during a period of calm news flow. AVAX’s subnet architecture and high-speed transaction capacity preserve its long-term potential, while in the short term, rising Bitcoin dominance is pressuring altcoins. Daily candle closes show a structure testing the 9.25 resistance; a break here could increase short-term optimism, but a cautious approach is necessary within the overall downtrend. Check detailed data for AVAX Spot Analysis.
AVAX’s market cap and liquidity profile keep it in the shadow of ETH and SOL in Layer-1 competition, but the recent rise is supported by increasing volume. This indicates speculative buying entering, but sustainability requires broader market confirmation.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch
Support Zones
The strongest support level is $9.1433 (score: 73/100), functioning as a pivot point on the daily chart and positioned just above the last 24-hour lows. Below this, $7.5500 (score: 61/100) comes into play; this area carries Fibonacci retracement from weekly lows and MTF confluence. If 9.14 holds, short-term recovery is possible, but a break could accelerate bearish momentum. Historical data shows these supports held 60% of the time in the past, making them strategic watch points for traders.
Resistance Barriers
Short-term first resistance is $9.2533 (score: 72/100), near the intraday high and just above the current price. A breakout opens the door to $10.1576 (score: 62/100); this point overlaps with EMA20 and Supertrend resistance. 5 resistance density on the 1W timeframe increases upside pressure. Breaking these barriers looks difficult without volume confirmation, as the overall trend is bearish.
Momentum Indicators and Trend Strength
RSI (14) at 37.05, close to oversold territory and giving a potential bounce signal; however, dipping below 30 could deepen the decline. The MACD histogram is producing a bullish signal with a positive histogram, while the signal line crossover supports a momentum shift. Nevertheless, price remaining below EMA20 (9.87) preserves the short-term bearish structure. The Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal pointing to $11.17 resistance.
Trend strength analysis confirms weak momentum with ADX hovering horizontally around 25. On MTF, 3D RSI in the 40s shows the weekly trend is still downward. These mixed signals put AVAX in a volatile profile: short-term MACD-supported recovery, long-term Supertrend pressure dominant. Track these indicators in leveraged trades with AVAX Futures Analysis.
Risk Assessment and Trading Outlook
The risk/reward ratio from the current $9.21 price offers approximately 1:2.5 R/R to the bullish target of $13.7275 (score:33), and 1:1.8 to the bearish scenario at $4.5417 (score:22). If support at 9.14 holds, the bull scenario takes precedence; a break could trigger a fast drop. With high volatility, stop-losses should be placed below support. Overall outlook neutral-bearish: the short-term 4% rise may continue, but Bitcoin’s downtrend increases risks.
In the positive scenario, a 9.25 breakout targets 10.15 and strengthens with RSI recovery. On the negative side, loss of 9.14 leads to 7.55, accelerating with declining volume. Traders should adjust position size using MTF confluence; with low overall market liquidity, be prepared for sudden spikes.
Bitcoin Correlation
Bitcoin is trading at $68,964 with a 3.68% rise while the downtrend continues; Supertrend bearish signal is a red alert for altcoins. AVAX moves in 0.85 correlation with BTC, meaning BTC’s loss of 68,796 support pushes AVAX below 9.14. BTC supports at 68,796, 65,415, and 60,000 dollars are critical; resistances at 71,248, 75,120, 78,145. As BTC dominance rises, AVAX rally remains limited; a breakout above 71k could trigger altcoin rotation.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/avax-technical-analysis-february-14-2026-support-and-resistance-levels-and-market-commentary
