Monero (XMR) has climbed to the $357.60 level with an impressive 6.99% jump in the last 24 hours, standing at a critical turning point in the shadow of the main downtrend. RSI has declined to 38.32, giving oversold signals, while 9 strong levels clustered across multiple timeframes point to key points that will determine the size of a possible correction.
Market Outlook and Current Situation
As of February 14, 2026, XMR is trading at $357.60, having followed a volatile course in the $330.51 – $365.21 range over the last 24 hours and recording a 6.99% gain. Volume came in at $59.29 million, indicating increased institutional interest behind this rally, although the overall trend is still classified as a downtrend. This rise signals a temporary relief rally for the price holding above the short-term EMA20 ($130.53). However, the bearish structure on weekly and monthly charts raises doubts about the sustainability of this move.
The rotation seen in altcoins across the market reveals that XMR’s privacy-focused structure is being crushed under delisting risks and regulatory pressures. Despite Bitcoin’s 3.78% rise, the downtrend continues, with XMR’s relative strength remaining limited. A total of 9 strong levels have been identified in multi-timeframe (MTF) confluence: 1D (4 supports/2 resistances), 3D (3S/3R), and 1W (4S/3R); this clustering highlights the critical thresholds the price will test in the near term. You can evaluate the impact of these levels on the spot market in more detail by checking the XMR spot analysis.
There have been no specific breaking developments for XMR in the latest news flow, while macro pressures in the general crypto ecosystem – US inflation data and Fed rate expectations – are challenging altcoins. In this context, XMR’s consolidation around $357 stands out as a balance point testing investor psychology. Although it gives short-term recovery signals, the low volume indicates that the rally is based on weak fundamentals.
Technical Analysis: Levels to Watch
Support Zones
XMR’s main support zones are reinforced with high-scoring levels in MTF analysis. The strongest support is positioned at $117.5842 (score 80/100); this point carries great importance as it coincides with the Fibonacci retracement 61.8% on 1D and 1W timeframes. If the price corrects toward here, aggressive buying could kick in, but in case of a breakdown, the next target will be $100.4000 (71/100). This level is supported by monthly lows and volume profiles.
The intermediate support at $109.5542 (69/100) functions as a pivot point on the 3D chart. This triple support cluster represents a potential base formation within the downtrend. The rebound from the recent rally off the $330s suggests these levels might challenge resistances first without being tested, but sustainability is questionable without volume increase. Investors can monitor these supports in leveraged positions via XMR futures.
Resistance Barriers
On the resistance front, $131.1706 (76/100) stands out as the most critical barrier; this level forms a cluster aligned with the Supertrend resistance at $145.76. If the price pulls back from $357 to here, this point could create rejection and reinforce the downtrend. The second resistance at $119.3508 (71/100) overlaps with the short-term EMA50, potentially increasing selling pressure.
Although these resistances are well below the current price, they could trigger a rapid retrace scenario when volatility expands. MTF confluence indicates that a breakout of these levels will initiate a new downward wave; for example, a drop below $131 will bring the $117 support into play.
Momentum Indicators and Trend Strength
RSI (14) at 38.32 is approaching the oversold region (below 30), giving a short-term bottom signal; however, in a downtrend, such readings often lead to trap rallies. The MACD indicator maintains bearish momentum, with a negative histogram and signal line crossover confirming downward pressure. The price being above EMA20 ($130.53) creates short-term bullish divergence, but remaining below EMA50 and EMA200 shows the main trend is intact.
Supertrend gives a bearish signal positioned at resistance $145.76; this emphasizes the temporary nature of the current rally. ADX (average directional index) around 25 indicates moderate trend strength – neither strong bull nor weak bear. Volume oscillators show weakness as the volume in the recent rise remains low compared to previous declines. Overall, momentum leans bearish but carries short-term recovery potential.
Risk Assessment and Trading Outlook
In the bullish scenario, the $180.7000 target (score 28) could come into play upon breaking the $131 resistance; however, being below the current $357 indicates a consolidation is needed first. The risk/reward ratio here is around 1:1.5, as bounces from supports offer limited upside. On the bearish side, $60.2500 (score 21) is reachable upon breakdown of the $117 support; this scenario improves R/R up to 1:3, creating short opportunities.
In risk assessment, volatility is high (7% daily change), liquidity is low; this opens the door to sudden spikes. Position sizes should be limited to 1-2%, with stop-losses placed above supports. Outlook: Short-term neutral-bullish, medium-term bearish. As long as the downtrend doesn’t change, rallies can be seen as selling opportunities. Always do your own research.
Bitcoin Correlation
XMR shows high correlation with BTC (0.85+), directly affected by Bitcoin’s downtrend. While BTC rises 3.78% to $68,908, Supertrend gives a bearish signal; a breakdown of BTC’s $68,806 support could trigger a rapid pullback to XMR’s $131 resistance. BTC supports at $65,415 and $60,000 could force XMR to test the $117-$100 range.
If BTC breaks $71,248 resistance, relief could come for XMR, but $75,121-$78,145 targets would delay altcoin rotation. As BTC dominance rises, privacy coins like XMR are under pressure; continuation of BTC’s downtrend will accelerate XMR’s bearish targets.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/xmr-technical-analysis-february-14-2026-support-resistance-market-commentary-and-price-targets
