Ethereum (ETH), despite a 5.21% rise in the last 24 hours within the main downtrend, continues to stay below EMA20 ($2,299); RSI at 34.45 carries bounce potential in the oversold region but MACD gives a bearish signal and critical supports await testing in the $1,961-$1,747 range.
Executive Summary
Ethereum’s technical chart maintains the dominant downtrend structure while showing short-term recovery signals. Price is positioned below EMA20 at $2,048, with RSI at 34.45 indicating oversold conditions; however, Supertrend is bearish and BTC’s downtrend poses risk for altcoins. Critical supports cluster at $1,961 and $1,747, while resistances are strong in the $2,156-$2,477 band; risk/reward ratio is unfavorable in the bearish scenario, bullish target $3,000 but volume confirmation is required.
Market Structure and Trend Status
Current Trend Analysis
ETH is trading in a clear downtrend on 1D and higher timeframes. Price has retraced nearly 50% from highs ($4,000+ peaks) to the $2,000 band, and despite the 5.21% rise in the last 24 hours, the trend is unbroken. The Supertrend indicator gives a bearish signal and resistance level stands out at $2,515.17. Although there is short-term (4H) recovery, on the 1W chart price is near the lower band of the downtrend channel; this structure signals a search for new lows. Multi-timeframe analysis detects 11 strong levels on 1D/3D/1W: 2S/2R on 1D, 2S/3R on 3D, 2S/2R on 1W with balanced distribution but bearish bias prevailing.
Structural Levels
Structurally, ETH’s main downtrend channel is squeezed between $1,747 (low-volume swing low) and $2,477 (previous high). Price remaining below EMA20 ($2,299.31) strengthens the short-term bearish bias; EMA50 (around $2,450) acts as medium-term resistance. According to Fibonacci retracements, the 61.8% level forms critical support at $1,961, while 38.2% resistance at $2,156 expects strong reaction. These levels confirm the downtrend continues without market structure breakdown.
Technical Indicators Report
Momentum Indicators
RSI(14) at 34.45 is near the oversold region, bouncing from 25 with the recent rise showing weak momentum recovery; however, no divergence and volume required for breakout above 50. MACD histogram is negative and below the signal line, bearish crossover continues; MACD line accelerating below zero indicates dominant selling pressure. Stochastic in the 20s oversold, carries short-term squeeze potential but overall momentum bearish.
Trend Indicators
EMAs: Price below EMA20 ($2,299), bearish alignment after death cross with EMA50 and EMA200 ($2,600+). Supertrend has flipped bearish, trailing stop at $2,515 resistance. In Ichimoku Cloud, price below cloud, Tenkan-Kijun cross bearish; this combination confirms trend strength favors sellers. All trend indicators support the downtrend, no breakout despite short-term EMA approach.
Critical Support and Resistance Analysis
Support Zones: $1,961.4376 (score 78/100, 1D/3D confluence, Fib 61.8 and swing low), $1,747.8000 (score 71/100, 1W support, channel lower band). Break below these levels opens bearish target $1,500-$792 (score 21/100). Resistance Zones: $2,156.7925 (score 72/100, EMA20 and Fib 38.2), $2,477.8708 (score 66/100, EMA50 and Supertrend res). $2,299 EMA20 first test point; breakout requires close above $2,156. Multi-TF levels (11 total) strengthen these zones, volume test critical.
Volume and Market Participation
24h volume at $13.17B is high, supporting the recent rise but OBV in downtrend (no accumulation). Volume profile shows POC (Point of Control) at $1,961, high support strength. Volume spike in last 5% rise but downtrend volumes more dominant; buyer participation weak, sellers dominant. Daily VWAP around $2,050, close below price increases bearish bias. Overall, volume supports trend continuation; bullish requires new OBV higher high.
Risk Assessment
Risk/Reward: From current $2,048, bullish target $3,000 (+46%, reward 952$) risks to $1,961 support (-4.3%, risk 88$), R/R 1:10.8 favorable. Bearish scenario to $792 target (-61%, risk 1,256$) R/R 1:0.76 unfavorable. Main risks: BTC downtrend impact, Ethereum Foundation management change (Tomasz Stańczak departure may create uncertainty), false bounce from low RSI. Volatility high (24h range 7.6%), stop-loss below $2,100 res; long on $2,156 breakout confirmation, short on $1,961 break recommended. Overall risk level medium-high, cautious approach required until downtrend breaks.
Bitcoin Correlation
ETH correlates with BTC at 0.85+; BTC in downtrend at $68,880 (Supertrend bearish), supports $66,690-$62,910-$47,080, resistances $70,242-$76,012-$83,750. Despite BTC 3.99% rise, increasing dominance limits altcoin rally; ETH BTC pair downtrend continuation pressures ETH. BTC break below $66k accelerates ETH $1,747 test, $70k breakout opens ETH $2,477. Prioritize monitoring BTC movements, independent ETH rally difficult.
Conclusion and Strategic Outlook
ETH chart dominated by downtrend, short-term oversold bounce ($2,156 target) possible but EMA20 breakout and volume confirmation required for trend change. Bearish scenario weighs heavier ($1,961-$1,747 support tests), BTC correlation increases risk. Strategy: Short-term long above $1,961 (TP $2,156), aggressive short after $2,156 rejection (TP $1,747). Long-term investors await $1,747 bottom accumulation. News flow (Ethereum Foundation changes) may increase volatility. For spot trades follow ETH Spot, for futures ETH Futures. Full outlook bearish biased, risk management essential.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/eth-comprehensive-technical-analysis-february-13-2026-detailed-review
