Although Bitcoin showed a limited recovery around 68,900 dollars with a weekly gain of 3.88%, the main downtrend structure remains intact, and critical support tests are prominent with oversold momentum signals. The market structure could create bullish confluence if the 70,000 dollar resistance is broken, while it carries the risk of a deep correction in case of a break below 66,000 dollars.
Weekly Market Summary for BTC
BTC spent the week in the 65.872 – 69.483 dollar range and closed with a 3.88% rise, but is trading at 68.909 dollars. In the bigger picture, the market continues to remain in the downtrend phase; failure to stay above EMA20 (74.762 dollars) and negative histogram in MACD confirm bearish momentum. RSI at 35.48 level approaches the oversold zone, while the volume profile remained limited at 20.14 billion dollars. In the macro context, developments such as NYSE American’s approval for listing options for crypto ETFs and Binance SAFU fund’s purchase of 4.545 BTC (304.58 million dollars) support institutional demand, although the trend filter remains bearish. For detailed spot data, check the BTC spot analysis page.
Trend Structure and Market Phases
Long-Term Trend Analysis
The long-term trend structure shows a clear downtrend on higher timeframes (1W/1M); the price continues to stay below the main 80.175 dollar resistance, and EMA20/50 confluence creates pressure in the 74,000-76,000 band. In terms of market cycle, the distribution phase from the 2025 peak (with 150%+ downside potential) dominates; however, divergence signals in RSI may indicate the start of a potential accumulation. Trend integrity remains valid as long as it holds above the 62.909 dollar major support; a break below activates the 36,000 dollar strategic target. In this context, short bias is prominent for portfolio managers on monthly horizons, as macro cycles (interest rate cuts and regulatory uncertainty) support the downtrend.
Accumulation/Distribution Analysis
Distribution patterns are evident on weekly bars: Upper shadow formations and low-volume pumps indicate exits by weak hands. In the volume profile, POC (Point of Control) concentrates around 66,000, while naked POCs above 70,000 await breakout. With oversold RSI (35.48), a re-accumulation phase may be tested according to Wyckoff methodology, but negative expansion in MACD histogram confirms distribution. The 62.909-66.689 support band is critical for accumulation features; holding here could accelerate accumulation with smart money inflows (like Binance SAFU purchase). For futures markets, follow BTC futures data.
Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Daily Chart View
On the daily timeframe, there is 2 support/2 resistance confluence: Price held above 66.689 dollars (71/100 score), forming short-term bullish hammers, but a close below EMA20 signals bearish structure break. RSI divergence and MACD line cross potential create confluence for a test toward 70.242 dollar (77/100) resistance. On 1D, the market phase is shifting to consolidation, with breakout risky without volume increase.
Weekly Chart View
On weekly, strong bearish bias with 4 supports/2 resistances: 62.909 dollars (81/100) major support coincides with trendline and is the downtrend’s inflection point. Above, 76.011 dollars (63/100) resistance aligns with Fibonacci 0.618 retracement. Market structure is indecisive with weekly doji-like formations; a break above 69.482 weekly high triggers bullish impulse, but volume confirmation is required.
Critical Decision Points
Main supports: 66.689 dollars (short-term), 62.909 dollars (strategic, 81/100 score). Resistances: 70.242 dollars (77/100, first test), 76.011 dollars (long-term). Trend structure remains bullish intact with a close above 70.242; below 66.689 accelerates distribution and tests 62.909. Confluence of 12 strong levels (1D/3D/1W) expects high-probability reactions at these points. Visit the BTC and other analyses page for all analyses.
Weekly Strategy Recommendation
In Bullish Case
Upon breakout and weekly close above 70.242 dollars confirmation, long positions activate 101,000 dollar upside objective (R/R 1:4+). Stop-loss below 66.689, partial profit at 76.011. Bullish scenario is supported by NYSE ETF options and institutional buying; ideal for accumulation phase entry.
In Bearish Case
Break below 66.689 dollars strengthens short bias, testing 62.909 and 36,000 dollar downside risk (R/R 1:3+). Stop-loss above 70.242, targets stepwise: 62.909 / 58.000. Bearish momentum (negative MACD) and downtrend structure offer high-probability setups for position traders.
Conclusion: Key Points for Next Week
Next week, the 66.689-70.242 band is decisive; upside breakout creates bullish confluence, downside breakout triggers distribution. Volume increase and macro news (ETF developments) should be monitored, RSI divergence may signal reversal. Measured exposure is recommended on portfolio horizon until downtrend remains intact.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/btc-technical-analysis-13-february-2026-weekly-strategy
