Key Insights
- Bitcoin price prediction from Standard Chartered cut to $100,000, warning $50,000 possible.
- Major banks disagree with JPMorgan at $170,000 and Goldman Sachs scenarios at $200,000.
- Bearish divergence formed early February, predicting pullback to $48,756 support level.
Standard Chartered just slashed its Bitcoin price prediction to $100,000. The bank previously forecast $150,000 for the end of 2026.
Now they warn Bitcoin price could drop to $50,000 before any recovery starts. They cited heightened macroeconomic risks and slowing corporate treasury demand.
JPMorgan disagrees. They maintain a $170,000 target for BTC price. Citigroup sees $143,000 as the base case.
Goldman Sachs scenario analysis reaches $200,000 under favorable conditions. The banks cannot agree on where Bitcoin goes next. But technical charts already showed the direction weeks ago.
Standard Chartered Cuts Bitcoin Price Prediction
Standard Chartered announced the revision on Feb. 12. Their previous Bitcoin price prediction called for $150,000 by the end of 2026.
The new BTC price target sits at $100,000. The bank emphasized that near-term downside risks remain elevated.
They specifically warned Bitcoin (BTC) price could test $50,000 levels before finding support and reversing higher.
The reasons given include ETF outflows, uncertain Federal Reserve policy, and fading momentum from corporate buyers. Companies that loaded Bitcoin onto balance sheets in 2025 are not adding at the same pace.
Retail interest cooled after the initial ETF launch excitement faded. Macro conditions with sticky inflation and potential recession fears also weigh on risk assets.
This marks the second major downgrade from Standard Chartered in recent months. They originally had targets as high as $300,000 in more optimistic scenarios from 2025. Reality has forced continuous revisions lower as Bitcoin price currently trades around $66,518 after dropping significantly from recent highs.
Major Banks Cannot Agree on 2026 Bitcoin Price Target
JPMorgan maintains a $170,000 Bitcoin price prediction based on the volatility-adjusted gold comparison model. They view Bitcoin as digital gold and calculate fair value using similar frameworks.
Their analysts remain positive on institutional-led inflows despite current weakness. They note that miner production costs around $77,000, creating a natural floor.
Citigroup published a $143,000 base case scenario with a bullish case reaching $189,000. The bullish scenario assumes strong ETF adoption continues, and regulatory clarity improves through legislation like the CLARITY Act.
Their bear case drops to around $78,000 if conditions deteriorate significantly. Bernstein holds a $150,000 target for Bitcoin (BTC) price.
They call the current selloff the weakest bear case in history. Their thesis centers on institutional buying offsetting retail weakness. They see an elongated bull cycle rather than the traditional four-year halving pattern.
Goldman Sachs scenario-based analysis points to $200,000 possibilities tied to Federal Reserve rate cuts and regulatory easing. This is not a firm target but a potential outcome under specific conditions.
The wide range from $100,000 to $200,000 across major banks shows massive uncertainty. Most cluster around $140,000 to $170,000. That implies roughly 100% to 150% upside from the current Bitcoin price level if the bulls are correct.
February Divergence Signaled Drop Toward $48,000
Technical chart analysis revealed a bearish divergence forming between Feb. 2 and Feb. 8. During this period, Bitcoin price prediction based on price action showed a lower high being made.
At the same time, the RSI indicator made a higher high. This is hidden bearish divergence. It signals weakening momentum. Buyers are getting exhausted even though the price temporarily pushes higher.
The divergence pattern predicted the exact pullback that is happening right now. Bitcoin dropped from those early February levels and continues trending lower.
The technical signal appeared before Standard Chartered announced its downgrade. Charts knew what was coming while banks were still catching up.
Key Bitcoin price prediction support sits at $48,756 based on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. This is historically one of the strongest support zones.
Buyers typically emerge at Fibonacci levels during corrections. If Bitcoin (BTC) reaches that level and holds, it would align with Standard Chartered’s $50,000 warning.
Source: https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2026/02/13/standard-chartered-slashes-bitcoin-price-prediction-to-100000/
