Bitcoin and XRP Price Prediction From Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg

Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, outlined a two-phase outlook for crypto markets, combining near-term downside risk with aggressive long-term recovery targets.

Speaking to CNBC and earlier to Korea Economic Daily, McClurg described 2026 as the “bear leg” of the historical four-year crypto cycle rather than the start of a structural collapse.

His framework suggests volatility ahead, but not the end of the cycle thesis.

Bitcoin Outlook: Summer Weakness Before Cycle Reacceleration

McClurg expects Bitcoin to face continued macro pressure through mid-2026. He projected a potential bottom forming during the summer months, attributing the expected weakness to inflationary pressures, constrained risk appetite, and restrictive Federal Reserve policy.

As of February 11, Bitcoin is trading near $67,000, with sentiment readings in “Extreme Fear” territory. Despite this backdrop, McClurg maintains that the four-year halving cycle remains intact. Under his scenario, 2026 represents a transitional bear phase before a renewed expansion.

Looking beyond the projected summer low, he anticipates a strong bull market beginning later in the year, potentially extending into 2027. His long-term view implies that Bitcoin could re-enter a sustained upside phase once macro conditions stabilize and liquidity improves.

XRP Outlook: Utility-Driven Divergence Thesis

McClurg expressed stronger relative conviction in XRP, suggesting that certain digital assets may begin to decouple from Bitcoin’s price cycle. He pointed to growing infrastructure development around the XRP Ledger and its positioning for real-world transactions and tokenized assets.

According to his view, 2026 could mark the beginning of a divergence phase in which assets such as XRP and Solana trade more on utility-based fundamentals rather than simply mirroring Bitcoin’s directional moves.

XRP is currently trading near $1.90. McClurg’s long-term outlook reflects optimism that institutional adoption of blockchain infrastructure could reshape valuation frameworks over the coming cycle.

Macro and Structural Drivers

McClurg’s thesis hinges on macro stabilization and the persistence of the halving cycle model. He cited inflation trends and Federal Reserve policy as primary drivers of near-term volatility, arguing that tightening financial conditions are weighing on speculative assets.

At the same time, he maintains that structural capital formation in crypto continues beneath the surface. Canary Capital has reportedly increased its focus on XRP exposure, reflecting a belief that infrastructure-layer assets may outperform in the next expansion phase.

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Market Sentiment and Cycle Perspective

The current market environment is characterized by elevated fear metrics, with Bitcoin hovering near $67,000 as of February 11. McClurg interprets this environment not as a cycle breakdown, but as a typical mid-cycle correction consistent with prior halving periods.

His outlook frames 2026 as a reset year rather than a terminal downturn. If the cycle thesis holds, the projected summer weakness would precede a renewed bull phase into 2027.

Conclusion

McClurg’s forecast outlines a volatile transition period for crypto markets, marked by macro-driven pressure followed by potential recovery. While near-term caution dominates his outlook, the longer-term narrative remains tied to the historical four-year cycle and increasing institutional infrastructure development.

Whether the divergence between Bitcoin and utility-focused assets materializes will depend on liquidity conditions, regulatory clarity, and sustained adoption rather than sentiment alone.

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