Robinhood Drops 11.5% After Crypto Revenue Slump Weighs on Q4 Results

Robinhood shares fell 11.5% to $75.83 on February 11, 2026, after the company reported fourth-quarter results that missed revenue expectations, largely due to a sharp slowdown in cryptocurrency trading activity.

The sell-off followed a mixed earnings release in which annual revenue reached a record $4.5 billion, but quarterly crypto-based transaction revenue declined significantly.

The reaction reflects investor sensitivity to crypto-driven volatility, which remains a meaningful contributor to the company’s transaction revenue mix.

Revenue Miss Driven by Crypto Weakness

Robinhood reported $1.28 billion in fourth-quarter revenue, below Wall Street estimates ranging between $1.32 billion and $1.34 billion. Despite the revenue miss, diluted earnings per share came in at $0.66, exceeding the consensus estimate of $0.63.

The primary headwind came from crypto transaction revenue, which fell 38% year-over-year to $221 million in Q4 2025, down from $358 million in the same period of 2024. The decline coincided with reduced retail trading interest and a broader correction in Bitcoin prices.

User engagement metrics also softened. Monthly Active Users declined 13% year-over-year to 13 million, falling short of FactSet expectations of 14.2 million. The combination of weaker trading volumes and lower user activity weighed on overall transaction-based revenue.

Analysts Trim Targets but Maintain Long-Term Ratings

Following the earnings release, several analysts reduced price targets while maintaining constructive long-term views.

JPMorgan lowered its price target to $113 from $130, citing moderating growth and challenging comparisons against a strong 2025 performance. Barclays cut its target to $124 from $159, pointing to reduced take rates in options and crypto trading, though it maintained an Overweight rating. Piper Sandler reduced its target to $135 from $155, noting elevated short-term volatility but describing Robinhood as a leading “super app” platform for retail investors.

Zacks Investment Research took a more cautious tone, suggesting that the crypto slowdown appears structural rather than seasonal, and highlighted that app-based crypto trading volumes fell an additional 57% in January 2026.

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Diversification Offsets Some Crypto Pressure

Despite the contraction in crypto trading, other business segments demonstrated resilience. Prediction markets emerged as a standout category, with 8.5 billion contracts traded in the fourth quarter alone.

Robinhood Gold subscriptions grew 58% year-over-year to a record 4.2 million users, supporting recurring revenue streams. Net interest revenue increased 39% to $411 million, driven by growth in interest-bearing assets and higher rate environments.

These segments have partially offset volatility in transaction-driven categories, though crypto remains a meaningful earnings lever during active market cycles.

Structural Implication

The earnings report underscores Robinhood’s evolving revenue mix. While crypto activity continues to introduce cyclical volatility, growth in subscriptions, interest income, and prediction markets suggests ongoing diversification.

The stock’s reaction reflects near-term uncertainty around retail crypto engagement rather than a breakdown in the broader platform strategy. Future performance will likely hinge on whether digital asset trading stabilizes or whether diversified revenue streams continue to absorb crypto-related weakness.

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