While his February 9 X post was characteristically vague, the ‘Big Short’ investor Michael Burry appears to have taken Google’s (NASDAQ: GOOGL) decision to offer 100-year debt as part of its latest bond sale as a sign that the technology giant’s era of dominance is coming to an end.
Specifically, after explaining Alphabet’s plans in a single sentence, Burry reflected on the most recent example of a company offering such a bond – the then number 1 corporate brand in the U.S., Motorola (NYSE: MSI) in 1997 – and how the firm fared in its aftermath.
According to the ‘Big Short’ trader, the year 100-debt was issued was simultaneously the last year the mobile phone maker was a dominant company, as it was, soon after, overtaken by the Finnish then-juggernaut Nokia. By 2026, Motorola has fallen far and is, per Burry’s post, ‘the 232nd largest market cap with only $11 billion in sales.’
Why Google is unlikely to lose its relevance
Examining Alphabet’s fortunes in early 2026, the implication that Google might soon start its collapse into irrelevance appears like a stretch.
At press time on February 10, the company retains its relevance in the world of online search, has seen its business grow continuously with its artificial intelligence (AI) products growing in popularity, and GOOGL stock, despite the latest turbulence, remains green in 2026.
The comparison, however, is consistent with Michael Burry’s bearish estimate of the U.S. stock market.
Indeed, the ‘Big Short’ investor is noted for swapping his portfolio into a series of large short bets in the third quarter (Q3) of 2025 and, while it is not yet known how he has been trading in Q4 or the year or in January 2026, his public messaging indicates he foresees an imminent and large-scale crash.
Why Google stock might crash in 2026
There have also been various signs, despite Alphabet’s strength, that Google really is in decline. To begin with, the company’s search dominance fell for the first time in a decade, below 90%.
The move came as a large portion of users noted the decline in the quality of Google Search and as AI platforms like ChatGPT became better at serving as a novel type of search engine. It also coincided with Alphabet pushing its AI overview, a move that was itself a shock for the ecosystem, as it triggered a massive drop in traffic for most media websites.
Although by early 2026, the situation with Google Search and AI appears to have stabilized, recent stock market moves indicate a growing confidence that the novel technology will trigger a recession before it is able to be fully adopted and turn profitable.
Stark examples of the mood came after some of the most prominent players in the sector – Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) – reported their quarterly earnings.
Specifically, the three big tech firms all announced seemingly strong results only to fall in the stock market on growing fears they are overexposed to AI.
The merit in ‘Big Short’ Burry’s AI bubble forecast
The situation has also been exacerbated by the fact that multiple previously announced deals for developing artificial intelligence infrastructure appear to have either disappeared or been significantly downscaled.
Still, it is worth pointing out that out of the companies most involved with AI, the relatively small OpenAI and Anthropic appear most credibly at risk of outright collapse, with the other relevant firms being among the wealthiest companies in the world. Still, with the market-to-GDP – the so-called ‘Buffett indicator’ – at record highs, any bump on the road could lead to something akin to a bank run.
Source: https://finbold.com/michael-burry-issues-dire-forecast-for-google-stock-amid-100-year-bond-plans/
