Bitcoin Falls Under Large-Holder Cost Basis, Repeating a Rare Post-ATH Pattern

According to data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin has recently traded below the Realized Price of whales holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, a cohort representing wallets with approximately $7–70 million in Bitcoin at current prices.

The chart compares two key elements:

• White line: Bitcoin spot price
• Blue line: Realized Price of 100–1k BTC whale wallets

As of the latest reading, the whale realized price sits near $69,000, and Bitcoin’s recent decline pushed price below this level.

What the Chart Is Showing

The realized price represents the average on-chain cost basis of a specific holder group. For the 100–1k BTC whale cohort, this level reflects the average price at which these large holders last moved their coins.

When Bitcoin trades above this realized price, whales are, on average, holding unrealized profits. When price moves below it, the cohort is temporarily holding unrealized losses, a condition that historically signals elevated stress within that segment of the market.

In the current instance, the chart shows Bitcoin dipping below the whale realized price during the latest market pullback, placing price under a level that has often acted as a cycle-level reference point rather than short-term support.

Historical Context From the Same Chart

The chart also highlights the last comparable occurrence after an all-time high, which took place in June 2022. At that time, Bitcoin traded below the realized price of 100–1k BTC whales for roughly seven months.

This historical comparison does not imply repetition, but it does underline the rarity of the current condition. Post-ATH periods where price falls below whale realized cost have historically aligned with extended consolidation or deeper drawdown phases, rather than brief pullbacks.

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Structural Interpretation

From a structural perspective, this data point suggests that the market has moved into a zone where large, long-term holders are under cost-basis pressure, even if temporarily. That condition typically reflects broader deleveraging or risk-off behavior rather than localized volatility.

At the same time, the chart shows that the whale realized price itself continues to trend upward over the long term, indicating that this cohort has, on average, accumulated at progressively higher prices across cycles.

Key Takeaway

Bitcoin trading below the realized price of 100–1k BTC whales is an uncommon post-ATH signal that has historically coincided with prolonged adjustment phases. While it does not define direction on its own, it highlights a shift in cost-basis dynamics among large holders that the market has rarely ignored in past cycles.

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