TAO has declined by 2.57% on the daily chart to the 159.20 dollar level, with RSI at 27.98 indicating the oversold region and bringing potential rebound buying to the agenda; however, bearish MACD and Supertrend signals show that the downtrend dominance persists.
Market Outlook and Current Situation
TAO fluctuated in the 155.30-167.00 dollar range over the last 24 hours, trading at the 159.20 dollar level, while volume dropped to 113.76 million dollars, reflecting the general downtrend pressure in the market. Despite the AI-focused structure of the Bittensor project, the overall weakness in the altcoin market has left TAO well below EMA20 (196.45 dollars). This level reinforces the short-term bearish momentum, while investors focus on critical support regions. The market moves in sync with Bitcoin’s slight decline, revealing reduced risk appetite in altcoins.
In the daily timeframe, TAO maintains downtrend dominance, testing investor confidence with nearly 20% losses in recent weeks. The decrease in volume indicates intensifying selling pressure, while the volatility range is starting to narrow. In this context, the strong support region at 142.80 dollars could play a key role in forming a potential base. As market participants monitor liquidity flows in the general crypto ecosystem, insights from TAO Spot Analysis data increase the likelihood of short-term consolidation.
In multi-timeframe (MTF) confluence, 8 strong levels have been identified, distributed as 1D (1 support/1 resistance), 3D (2 resistances), and 1W (2 supports/4 resistances), painting a predominantly resistance-focused picture. This structure emphasizes that TAO needs additional catalysts for upward movement. While the declining volume trend does not provide early signals for a trend reversal, oversold conditions are noteworthy.
Technical Analysis: Levels to Watch
Support Levels
The strongest support level stands out at 142.80 dollars (score: 78/100); this region overlaps with Fibonacci retracements on daily and weekly charts, showing high confluence. A break below this area could activate the next MTF support cluster, but in the current downtrend, this scenario could accelerate selling. The 24-hour low at 155.30 dollars serves as a short-term micro support, and a bounce from here could signal a momentum shift.
The strength of support levels becomes more pronounced when supported by volume profiles; for example, the area around 142.80 dollars has successfully passed high-volume tests in the past. Investors should prepare for a potential V-shaped recovery if this level holds, as the oversold RSI makes this region attractive.
Resistance Barriers
The nearby resistance is positioned at 159.53 dollars (score: 69/100); being just above the current price, it is critical for short-term testing. Breaking this level could trigger a move toward EMA20 (196.45 dollars), but Supertrend’s resistance at 211.61 dollars forms a strong barrier. Additional resistances on 3D and 1W charts (total of 6) could limit upward attempts.
The density of resistances is clearly visible in MTF analysis; for instance, the 24-hour high at 167.00 dollars experienced quick rejection. Breaking these barriers requires increasing volume and positive news flow; otherwise, the price could retest 142.80 dollars. Leveraged positions to monitor on the TAO Futures Analysis platform could make these resistance tests more volatile.
Momentum Indicators and Trend Strength
RSI at 27.98 indicates the oversold region, increasing short-term rebound buying potential; however, the bearish MACD histogram and negative divergence confirm that trend strength remains downward. Trading below EMA20 reinforces the short-term bearish structure, while the Supertrend indicator also gives a sell signal. The downtrend line on the daily chart continues to pressure the price, and momentum indicators await additional confirmation for recovery.
RSI declining to around 35 on the 3D chart in multiple timeframes reflects overall weakness; the narrowing MACD histogram could pave the way for a potential crossover. Trend strength, measured by the ADX indicator, shows moderate bearish pressure. This combination suggests a patient approach to investors, while oversold RSI may offer short-term opportunities. The volume decrease signals weak momentum, necessitating a search for catalysts for a strong trend reversal.
Risk Assessment and Trading Outlook
The risk/reward ratio is unbalanced between bearish target 44.55 dollars (score:22) and bullish 280.78 dollars (score:30); in the current downtrend, short-term short positions appear more attractive, while long opportunities could form if support holds. With high volatility, stop-loss levels should be positioned below 142.80 dollars. The market outlook is cautious; oversold conditions may attract bottom hunters, but resistance barriers dominate.
The overall outlook weighs toward downtrend continuation; a bullish scenario requires a breakout above 159.53 dollars. Risk management should be prioritized, as BTC correlation will impact altcoins. In balanced portfolios, TAO is positioned as a high-risk asset sensitive to news flow.
Bitcoin Correlation
Bitcoin continues its downtrend with a 0.36% decline from the 70,158.75 dollar level, affecting altcoins like TAO with high correlation; if BTC breaks supports at 70,078, 65,786, and 62,370 dollars, a sharp drop to 142.80 dollars in TAO is inevitable. Conversely, if BTC surpasses resistances at 70,860, 74,308, and 77,936 dollars, an altcoin rally could carry TAO to bullish targets. BTC Supertrend being bearish makes a cautious approach mandatory for altcoins.
TAO’s performance under BTC dominance depends on general market liquidity; BTC declines could trigger altcoin selling, while stabilization would give TAO breathing room. Key BTC levels to watch will directly shape TAO strategies.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/tao-technical-analysis-february-10-2026-critical-support-and-resistance-levels-in-the-downtrend
