Is Cardano Setting Up a Breakout to $0.34 as Selling Incentives Drop 75%?

The Cardano price is down nearly 4% over the past 24 hours and remains about 33% lower over the past month. Despite this weakness, several technical and on-chain signals suggest that selling pressure is fading.

The share of ADA supply in profit has dropped by roughly 75% since January, sharply reducing profit-taking incentives. At the same time, a potential reversal pattern is forming on lower time frames. Together, these signals raise a key question: is this Charles Hoskinson-led token preparing for a rebound toward $0.34, or is this just another failed recovery attempt?

Inverse Pattern And Divergence Hint At Buyers Regaining Control

On the 4-hour chart, Cardano is forming an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. This structure often appears near local bottoms and signals that sellers may be losing control. It consists of a left shoulder, a deeper central low, and a higher right shoulder.

In this case, the neckline is sloping downward. A downward-sloping neckline makes breakouts harder because buyers must push through falling resistance. For this pattern to activate, ADA needs a clear four-hour close above the $0.275–$0.280 zone.

A momentum indicator, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), also supports this early recovery attempt. Between January 31 and February 9, Cardano seems to be printing lower lows on price, while the Relative Strength Index or RSI is printing higher lows. This developing bullish divergence shows that selling pressure is weakening even as price tests new short-term lows.

The divergence signal would confirm if the next ADA price candle forms above $0.259.

Bullish Pattern: TradingView

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In simple terms, sellers are becoming less aggressive. Buyers are slowly stepping in. But this setup only works if demand continues to build. Without follow-through, these patterns usually fail. That brings attention to whether sellers still have strong reasons to exit.

Profit-Taking and Coin Activity Have Collapsed, Reducing Sell Pressure

On-chain data shows that selling incentives have dropped sharply over the past month.

The percentage of total ADA supply in profit has fallen from above 33% in mid-January to about 8% in early February. That represents a decline of roughly 75%. It places profitable supply close to its lowest level in six months.

Profitability Drops: Santiment

When so few holders are in profit, fewer investors are motivated to sell into small rallies. Most are either at break-even or sitting on losses. This reduces natural selling pressure.

Another supportive signal comes from spent coins age data, which tracks how many coins, across old and young cohorts, are being moved. During the February 6 sell-off, coin activity surged to around 168 million ADA. Since then, it has dropped to roughly 92 million. That is a decline of about 45%.

Spent Coins Dip post ADA Crash: Santiment

This shows that long-term holders are no longer rushing to move or sell their coins. Panic-driven exits have slowed. Many investors are choosing to wait. When falling profit supply aligns with declining coin movement, it usually means distribution is easing. This does not guarantee a rally, but it creates space for one to develop.

With fewer motivated sellers, the next move depends mainly on buyer strength.

Volume and Cardano Price Levels Will Decide If $0.34 Comes Into Play

Despite improving structure and weaker selling pressure, buying strength remains limited.

On-Balance Volume, which tracks whether volume supports rising or falling prices, is still trending lower. It remains below a descending trendline. This shows that recent rebounds have not been supported by sustained demand.

The last major surge in buying happened on February 6, when ADA rallied from near $0.220 to around $0.285 in one day, almost 30%. Volume expanded sharply during that move. Since then, participation has cooled.

For a true breakout to develop, volume must expand again and push OBV above its downtrend. Without that, rallies are likely to fade. Key ADA price levels reflect this balance.

The first major resistance sits near $0.275. A confirmed break above this zone would validate the inverse pattern. Above that, $0.285 becomes the next hurdle. Clearing both would open the path toward $0.346, almost 30% from the pattern’s neckline.

Cardano Price Analysis: TradingView

On the downside, $0.259 is critical support. A break below this level would weaken the right shoulder and damage the bullish setup. Full invalidation occurs below $0.220, which would place the price back under the pattern’s base.

In simple terms, Cardano is approaching a decision point. Selling incentives have dropped about 75%. Coin activity has cooled. Momentum is improving. But volume has not yet confirmed buyer control.

If strong participation returns and $0.275 breaks, a move toward $0.34 ($0.346 to be exact) becomes realistic. If not, the ADA price risks drifting lower again.