BNB is trading in a downtrend, stuck around 637 dollars; while the RSI being in the oversold region creates upside potential, the bearish signals from MACD and EMAs increase the downside risk. Both scenarios can occur depending on market volume and breakouts of key levels.
Current Market Situation
BNB is currently trading at the 637.16 dollar level and has shown a slight increase of 0.37% in the last 24 hours. The daily change range stayed between 616.01 – 653.00 dollars, with trading volume around 655.27 million dollars. The overall trend continues as a downtrend; the price is trading below EMA20 (758.07 dollars), drawing a short-term bearish picture. RSI at 25.65 is in the oversold region, signaling a potential rebound purchase, but MACD maintains bearish momentum with a negative histogram. The Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal, with the main resistance at 762.81 dollars. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 10 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 1 support/2 resistances on 1D, 1 support/3 resistances on 3D, and 2 supports/3 resistances on 1W, indicating an unbalanced picture. Critical support is at 570.06 dollars (score: 73/100), resistances at 639.93 dollars (68/100) and 722.34 dollars (60/100). There are no breaking news specific to BNB in the market recently, but general crypto market volatility leaves the door open in both directions.
Scenario 1: Upside Scenario
How Does This Scenario Occur?
For the upside scenario, the current resistance level at 639.93 dollars must first be clearly broken and closed above. If this breakout is supported by increased volume (e.g., daily volume exceeding 800 million dollars), it could trigger a short-term momentum shift. RSI exiting the oversold region (above 25) and MACD histogram approaching zero will strengthen positive divergence. For Supertrend to turn bullish, the price must surpass EMA20 (758 dollars), after which the 722.34 dollar resistance will be tested. In MTF, holding supports on the 1W timeframe (without breaking below 570 dollars) preserves the validity of this scenario. Bitcoin breaking its 70.984 dollar resistance could also positively impact BNB, as altcoin rallies usually start with BTC leadership. If this scenario materializes, the rebound purchase from oversold conditions gains speed and the trend reversal begins.
Target Levels
First target 722.34 dollars (60/100 score resistance), followed by 762.81 dollars Supertrend resistance, and final target 982.60 dollars (25 score long-term target). These levels are derived from Fibonacci extensions and MTF resistances, and volume confirmation should be sought at each step. Scenario invalidation: Upside probability is zeroed if price breaks below the 570.06 dollar support.
Scenario 2: Downside Scenario
Risk Factors
The downside scenario is a continuation of the current downtrend; it is triggered by rejection at the 639.93 dollar resistance and the price retesting the 616 dollar lows. Even though RSI is oversold, MACD’s widening negative histogram and staying below EMAs keep momentum downward. If volume decreases or a sudden spike leads to a support breakout (close below 570.06 dollars), panic selling accelerates. If Supertrend remains bearish and BTC fails to break its 69.190 dollar support, correlation deepens the downside in altcoins. In MTF, the abundance of resistances in higher timeframes (3D/1W) (total 8 resistances) limits rallies and increases bearish pressure. Additional risk: General market volume decline or unexpected regulatory news.
Protection Levels
First protection level 570.06 dollars (73/100 score), followed by around 500 dollars intermediate support, and final target 307.63 dollars (21 score deep bearish target). These levels are calculated from MTF supports and Fibonacci retracement ratios. If volume increases confirm the breakout, reaching targets accelerates. Scenario invalidation: Strong close above 639.93 dollars with volume starts the upside.
Which Scenario to Watch?
The decision point lies between the 639.93 dollar resistance and 570.06 dollar support. For upside: Watch for close above 639.93 + RSI 30+, MACD zero crossover + volume increase. For downside: Follow breakout below 570 + MACD deepening + low-volume rejections. Daily/4H candle closes are critical; wait against false breakouts. Bitcoin’s move above 70.984 or below 69.190 directly affects BNB. Monitor additional data from BNB Spot Analysis and BNB Futures Analysis pages.
Bitcoin Correlation
BTC is currently at the 70.200 dollar level in a downtrend (-0.42% 24h) with Supertrend bearish; this negatively affects altcoins like BNB as correlation is around 0.85%. BTC breaking its 69.190 dollar support creates pressure on BNB toward 570 dollars, while surpassing 70.984 resistance triggers altcoin rally (BNB target 722+). With BTC dominance rising (currently bearish signal), the downside scenario is prominent for BNB; if BTC support at 65.843 dollars breaks, BNB approaches 307 target. Watch BTC: Supports 69.190/65.843/60.000, resistances 70.984/79.578/85.625.
Conclusion and Monitoring Notes
BNB at a critical juncture: Resistance breakout and BTC support for upside, support loss key for downside. Monitoring list: 639.93/570.06 levels, RSI/MACD divergences, volume profile, and BTC movements. In every scenario, calculate risk/reward ratio (currently around 1:2 to targets), set your stop-losses. Market is dynamic; follow BNB spot and futures pages for regular updates. Make your own analysis and decide.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/bnb-technical-analysis-february-9-2026-will-it-rise-or-fall
