What to Expect From Bitcoin and Crypto Market With US CPI and Jobs Data This Week?

Key Insights:

• Crypto market volatility to persist this week as chances of US government shutdown on Feb. 14 surge to 70%.
• 10x Research warns the crypto market may still face a final washout, citing weak sentiment, ETF outflows, and stablecoin redemptions.
• On-chain data shows strong Bitcoin accumulation by large holders, including a record 66,940 BTC inflow to accumulator wallets.

The broader crypto market faces major test this week with the release of US CPI inflation numbers. Other macro factors like the US Jobs data will also play a role as BTC price stages recovery above $70,000 over the weekend. It will be interesting to see whether this BTC bounce back sustains from here.

Crypto Market to Watch Key Events This Week

Crypto market is heading into into a data and earnings-heavy week. Several U.S. economic releases and major corporate results expected to influence rates, equities, and cryptocurrencies.

On Monday, Feb. 9, the Federal Reserve is set to draw market attention as Donald Trump formally nominates Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve. If confirmed, Warsh would bring prior experience as a Federal Reserve governor.

On Feb. 10, the US retail sales data will be released that shows the state of consumer goods and demands. Furthermore, on Feb. 11, investors will focus on the U.S. jobs report.

The situation looks tricky as the United States recorded more than 108,000 job cuts last month. It marks the worst January for layoffs since the 2009 global financial crisis. The US equity markets ended on a strong note last week, with Dow Jones index crossing 50,000. Interestingly, US President Donald Trump has said that Dow Jones could double to 100,000 by the end of his term.

Down Jones President Trump | Source: Donald Trump

The week concludes with the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report. Crypto market can expect heightened volatility as macro data and corporate earnings shape expectations around inflation, monetary policy, etc.

US Govt Shutdown Chances | Source: Polymarket

Another risk ahead for the crypto market could be the US government shutdown. As per the Polymarket data, there’s a 70% chance of US govt. shutdown by February 14. This could set the tone for the next market direction.

Can Crypto Market Face Final Washout Before Recovery?

Researchers at 10x Research still believe that the crypto market could face a final washout amid weak capital flows and sentiment. In its latest report, the firm analyzed derivatives positioning, volatility, funding rates, sentiment indicators, ETF and stablecoin flows.

10x Research reiterated that it had warned last week that Bitcoin’s break below $87,000 should be taken seriously. Since then, Bitcoin has fallen about 12%, while Ethereum has dropped roughly 17%. This validates the firm’s cautious stand.

Persistent ETF outflows and stablecoin off-ramps indicate that investors are not yet positioned to buy the dip. The researchers noted that while sentiment and technical indicators are nearing extreme levels, the broader downtrend remains intact.

Crypto market selloff | Source: 10x Research

The researchers noted a lack of clear bullish catalyst. Thus, it expects traders to remain focused on deleveraging and unwinding risk.

Bitcoin Whales Back In Action?

As per blockchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, large Bitcoin holders significantly increased accumulation during the recent market decline. According to the firm, the price drop prompted whales to purchase substantial amounts of Bitcoin.

On Feb. 6, approximately 66,940 BTC flowed into accumulator wallets, marking the largest single-day inflow of this cycle. CryptoQuant said the movement suggests strategic accumulation by large investors amid market weakness.

Bitcoin whale accumulation | Source: CryptoQuant

On the other hand, crypto exchange Binance has been buying more BTC from the user SAFU funds. Binance has added approximately 4,225 BTC, worth around $300 million, to its Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU), according to on-chain data.

Binance Bitcoin purchase SAFU funds | Source: Arkham Intelligence

The purchase strengthens the exchange’s SAFU reserves. Last month, Binance said that it would invest $1 billion from the SAFU funds, and back it with additional reserves if required. The exchange finds this a right opportunity by buying Bitcoin price dips.

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