Bitcoin Trades Far Below Long-Term Trend as Capitulation Signals Appear

Bitcoin is now trading at one of its deepest statistical discounts to trend on record. According to a CryptoQuant report, the Mayer Multiple has fallen to 0.6, meaning Bitcoin’s price is sitting roughly 40% below its 200-day moving average.

This level has historically appeared only during periods of severe market capitulation.

Rather than reflecting short-term volatility, the Mayer Multiple highlights how far price has deviated from its long-term equilibrium.

What the Mayer Multiple Shows

The Mayer Multiple is calculated by dividing Bitcoin’s current price by its 200-day moving average. A value of 1.0indicates price is exactly at trend.

Values above or below that level show whether the market is trading at a premium or discount.

Historically observed ranges include:

• Above 2.4: Overbought, bubble-like conditions
• 1.0–1.5: Typical bull-market range
• 0.8–1.0: Discount to trend, often associated with accumulation
• Below 0.8: Statistically oversold, usually seen during capitulation

At 0.6, Bitcoin is firmly in the extreme oversold zone.

Historical Context of Similar Readings

Readings below 0.7 have occurred only during major stress events:

• December 2018: Bear market bottom
• March 2020: COVID-driven liquidation
• November 2022: FTX-related collapse

In each case, the market was experiencing broad panic and pricing in worst-case outcomes. While price did not always reverse immediately, these periods marked clear zones of structural capitulation.

Why This Level Matters

A 40% deviation below the 200-day average suggests the market is heavily discounting future conditions that historically did not persist for long periods. The Mayer Multiple does not attempt to time exact bottoms, but it identifies moments when risk and reward become heavily skewed.

At these levels, volatility typically remains elevated, and consolidation can last for weeks. However, the statistical signal itself reflects an environment of extreme pessimism rather than complacency.

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What This Does Not Guarantee

The current reading does not imply:

• An immediate price reversal
• That further downside is impossible
• That a final bottom has already formed

Previous cycles show that price can remain depressed or briefly overshoot lower before stabilizing.

Structural Takeaway

Based on the CryptoQuant data and the chart alone, Bitcoin is trading at a historical extreme relative to its long-term trend. A Mayer Multiple of 0.6 has only appeared during the most severe capitulation phases of past cycles, signaling elevated stress—but also marking zones where long-term risk dynamics have historically shifted.

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