Metaplanet Doubles Down on Bitcoin as Drawdown Tests Conviction

Metaplanet is choosing accumulation over retreat as Bitcoin trades nearly 50% below its October peak, with CEO Simon Gerovich confirming that the company will continue adding BTC despite mounting unrealized losses.

The stance comes as both Bitcoin and Metaplanet’s equity absorb heavy pressure, forcing investors to reassess how far a Bitcoin-first strategy can stretch during a prolonged downturn.

Commitment Holds Even as Price Structure Weakens

Bitcoin briefly dipped near $60,000 in early February, extending a drawdown that has persisted since late 2025. Rather than signaling caution, Gerovich reiterated that accumulation will continue steadily, framing the sell-off as a test of discipline rather than a thesis break.

That approach mirrors Metaplanet’s positioning over the past year, where purchases were concentrated during volatility rather than strength. The strategy assumes that long-term balance-sheet exposure matters more than near-term mark-to-market performance.

Treasury Scale and Accumulation Targets

As of February 6, Metaplanet holds 35,102 BTC, making it the fourth-largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder globally. The company’s so-called “555 Million Plan” sets ambitious targets: 100,000 BTC by the end of 2026 and 210,000 BTC by 2027.

The most aggressive phase of buying occurred in Q4 2025, when Metaplanet added 4,279 BTC for roughly $451 million. That expansion materially lifted exposure but also locked in a high cost basis. The firm’s average acquisition price now sits near $107,000 per BTC, leaving the treasury deeply underwater at current market levels.

Equity Pressure Reflects Balance-Sheet Risk

The impact has been most visible in the stock. Metaplanet shares (TYO: 3350) closed at ¥340 on February 6, down 5.56% on the session and roughly 82% below their June 2025 peak. The equity has increasingly traded as a leveraged proxy for Bitcoin, amplifying downside during drawdowns.

At the same time, management has continued to signal confidence. On January 29, the board approved an equity financing plan to raise up to ¥21 billion (around $137 million), earmarked for further Bitcoin purchases and debt management.

Bitcoin Inflows to Binance Rise as Selling Pressure and Panic Build

Balancing Losses With Operating Income

Financially, the company is absorbing pressure on multiple fronts. Metaplanet expects non-cash impairment charges of roughly $680 million for 2025 due to Bitcoin’s decline. Even so, it raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $103 million, pointing to growth in its Bitcoin income generation business as a partial offset.

The balance sheet also carries approximately $280 million in outstanding debt, adding another layer of sensitivity to prolonged weakness in BTC prices. Management’s challenge is maintaining access to capital without forcing dilution at depressed equity levels.

Structural Takeaway

Metaplanet’s position is becoming clearer: this is no longer a tactical Bitcoin allocation, but a structural identity. The company is willing to tolerate deep unrealized losses, equity volatility, and balance-sheet strain in exchange for maximizing long-term BTC exposure.

Whether that conviction is rewarded will depend less on short-term rebounds and more on Bitcoin’s ability to reassert an upward macro structure before financing and dilution risks begin to dominate the narrative.

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