Palantir (PLTR) Stock: Dan Ives Sees 77% Upside After “Drop the Mic” Earnings

TLDR

• Palantir (PLTR) stock dropped 27% year-to-date despite strong Q4 earnings, with revenue up 70% to $1.407 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.25 beating estimates by $0.02
• Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives maintains $230 price target on PLTR, suggesting 77% upside potential, calling the current software sell-off “a major head scratcher”
• Palantir reported 2025 full-year revenue of $4.475 billion, up 56% year-over-year, with US commercial revenue surging 109% and US government revenue up 55%
• The company’s AI Platform (AIP) drove unprecedented demand with 137% growth in US commercial revenue in Q4 and closed 180 deals worth at least $1 million
• Ives believes fears about AI disrupting traditional software companies are “extremely overblown” and predicts Palantir has “a golden path to becoming a trillion-dollar market cap company”

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Palantir stock has fallen 27% in 2026 even as the company delivered another quarter of strong financial results that beat Wall Street expectations.

Palantir Technologies Inc., PLTR

The data analytics company reported Q4 revenue of $1.407 billion, up 70% from the prior year and $65.4 million above forecasts. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.25, beating estimates by $0.02.

US commercial revenue grew 137% in the quarter. The company closed 180 deals worth at least $1 million during the three-month period.

For the full year 2025, Palantir posted revenue of $4.475 billion, up 56% from 2024. US revenue reached $3.32 billion, climbing 75% year-over-year.

US commercial revenue surged 109% for the year while US government revenue increased 55%. Adjusted free cash flow totaled $2.270 billion in 2025.

The stock decline reflects investor concerns about the company’s valuation and whether it can maintain its rapid growth trajectory. Software stocks broadly have faced pressure as investors worry that AI agents could disrupt traditional seat-based subscription models.

Analyst Pushes Back on Software Sector Pessimism

Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives, ranked in the top 4% of Wall Street analysts by TipRanks, believes the market is overreacting. He argues that fears about AI destroying software companies are overblown.

Ives maintains an Outperform rating on Palantir with a $230 price target. That implies 77% upside from current levels around $130.

The analyst points to unprecedented demand for Palantir’s AI Platform, particularly across commercial and federal customers. The platform solves mission-critical use cases at enterprise scale with shorter sales cycles and faster deployment timelines.

AI Platform Drives Customer Wins

Palantir’s AI Platform has become the company’s star product since its launch a few years ago. The platform allows users to interact with data systems using natural language without special computer training.

Recent partnerships demonstrate the platform’s appeal to large organizations. Since mid-December, Palantir has announced deals with France’s domestic intelligence agency DGSI, insurance giant AIG, and the UK’s Sovereign AI infrastructure provider.

Palantir’s stock has climbed 1,700% over the past three years despite the recent pullback. The company currently carries a market cap around $310 billion.

Wall Street analysts give Palantir shares a Moderate Buy consensus rating. Of 18 analysts covering the stock, 11 rate it a Buy, 5 say Hold, and 2 recommend Sell.

The average analyst price target of $192.88 suggests 48% upside potential. Ives’ $230 target sits well above the consensus, reflecting his conviction that Palantir will continue leading the AI data analytics market.

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