Miners are experiencing their darkest hour: shut down their machines or try to save themselves?

Author: Heart of Computing Power

This winter in the mining industry is colder and more desperate than expected.

Just as everyone was still reeling from the shock of Bitcoin falling below $70,000, reality dealt another heavy blow: Bitcoin plummeted below the $60,000 mark.

For cryptocurrency traders, this number might just be a fluctuating red and green on their account balances, but for those who manage mining rigs, it's a real "life-or-death line." The current market environment is completely different from that of early last year. Back then, although it was tough, everyone still had hope, believing that things would take off after the halving.

But what about now? The network's hashrate is still skyrocketing, everyone is racing to keep up, afraid of being crushed by their competitors if they fall behind. The result is: more and more machines are being set up, but the pie they get is getting smaller and smaller. With hashrate prices falling to this level, frankly speaking, many small and medium-sized mining farms are probably losing money on electricity and depreciation for every coin they mine.

I. The giant collapsed

Previously, everyone thought that top mining companies, with their cryptocurrency, mining rigs, and cheap electricity, could simply win without effort. But reality has proven them wrong.

Bitcoin mining company MARA transferred 1,318 BTC, worth approximately $86.89 million, to TwoPrime, BitGo, and Galaxy Digital in the past 10 hours. Industry rumors are disheartening: MARA has been targeted by large institutions, and this transfer is likely for selling cryptocurrency to pay off debts. Ironically, MARA only spent $69,000 to buy these Bitcoins.

Even industry giants are facing losses and being forced to sell at the $60,000 mark, with many struggling to stay afloat. When industry leaders are admitting defeat and exiting the market, how much confidence do ordinary miners have left?

II. Who is teetering on the edge of life and death?

Running mining rigs nowadays is a money-losing proposition, while shutting them down is a death sentence. Based on the latest global hashrate data and electricity costs, this trade-off has been thoroughly analyzed.

The "death line" for mainstream mobile phone models

According to Antpool data, under the current Bitcoin mining difficulty and an electricity price of $0.08/kWh, models such as the Antminer S19XP+Hyd, Whatsminer M60S, and Avalon A1466I are currently close to their shutdown Bitcoin price; the shutdown Bitcoin price of the Antminer S21 series (S21, S21+, S21Hyd) is approximately between $69,000 and $74,000. Furthermore, high-hashrate models such as the Antminer U3S23H and S23Hyd have shutdown Bitcoin prices exceeding $44,000.

III. The "Self-Destructive Involution" of Computing Power Pricing

Why is the hashrate still hitting new highs even though the price of cryptocurrency has fallen?

This is the harsh reality: large mining farms are employing a "lower-dimensional attack." To survive, they continuously invest heavily in more efficient S21 and S23 mining machines, causing the network difficulty to skyrocket. This has become an extremely competitive marathon: everyone is running, but I run fast not to win, but simply to avoid being trampled by those behind me.

The mining industry is no longer a "get-rich-quick scheme," but a standard asset-heavy, low-margin, and high-risk processing industry. MARA's sale of its tokens is just one signal: even if you have mining assets, you have to bow down to liquidity depletion and losses.

This wave of liquidation, with prices falling below 60,000, is essentially the final growing pain in the mining industry's transition from a "wild west" era to an "oligopoly era."

Stop believing in the nonsense that "halving will inevitably lead to price increases." Faced with absolute cost pressures, all narratives are meaningless. The mining game has now entered a stock era; it's no longer a game of who's bolder, but rather a game of who has more stable cash flow, whose machines are more efficient, and who can keep their electricity bills down by a few cents.

The so-called "darkest hour" is often the beginning of an industry reshuffle. When the tide goes out, some are swimming naked, while others have upgraded their air tanks in the deep sea. Perhaps in a few months, the current "shutdown wave" will simply be the ticket that must be paid before the next distribution of wealth.

But this time, do you still have that ticket to enter?