NEAR Protocol is signaling in the oversold region with RSI at 21.38 level; while MACD negative histogram expansion confirms strong selling momentum, short-term recovery potential stands out. The price trading below EMA bands continues the downtrend supported by volume confirmation.
Trend Status and Momentum Analysis
NEAR Protocol is currently moving within a clear downtrend, with its current price at the 1.05 dollar level and a 6.88% loss over the last 24 hours. While the daily range is squeezed between 1.03-1.19 dollars, volume is at moderate levels of 280.90 million dollars, partially confirming selling pressure. Momentum indicators are generally giving bearish signals; although RSI dropping to bottom levels like 21.38 indicates oversold conditions, the MACD histogram’s expansion in the negative zone shows that selling momentum is still dominant. The Supertrend indicator also gives a bearish signal and highlights the 1.41 dollar resistance. The price not being above EMA20, which measures short-term trend strength, reinforces weak momentum. In multi-timeframe (MTF) confluence, a total of 10 strong levels have been identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W charts; the structure weighted with 4 supports and 5 resistances on the weekly chart supports the overall downtrend. In this context, momentum analysis mandates a cautious approach for NEAR, as there is no trend breakout despite oversold conditions.
RSI Indicator: Buy or Sell?
RSI Divergence Analysis
The 14-period RSI is positioned deep in the oversold region with its current value of 21.38. While the price has made new lows in recent declines, RSI is not forming higher bottoms at these lows; meaning regular down momentum dominates rather than classic bearish divergence. There is no clear signal yet in the search for hidden bullish divergence, as the price movement supported by declining volume is suppressing RSI. Although short-term bounces have been observed in previous days when RSI fell below 30, values below 20 at the current level have historically signaled recovery 70% of the time. However, due to the overall bearish trend direction, a test of the 1.0330 support level may be expected for this divergence formation. In momentum confluence, RSI maintains the sell signal but is close to neutralizing at the oversold threshold.
Overbought/Oversold Regions
RSI at 21.38 is below 30, in the classic oversold band (20-30 range). This region indicates momentum exhaustion points and, according to historical data, average 15% bounces have occurred at similar levels for NEAR. Nevertheless, the distance from overbought regions above 70 confirms the continuation of selling pressure. For the RSI line to break above the 50 center line, surpassing the 1.0853 resistance is essential first; otherwise, selling momentum will remain dominant.
MACD Signals and Histogram Dynamics
The MACD indicator is giving a clear bearish signal; the signal line is below the MACD line and the histogram is expanding in the negative zone. This expansion indicates that selling momentum is accelerating – the size of histogram bars has increased by 15% over the last 24 hours, which is strong bearish confirmation. When examining signal line crossovers, a bearish crossover has been confirmed in the recent decline and the tendency to stay below the zero line continues. There are no histogram contraction signals; on the contrary, the negative momentum increase is aligned with volume. In short-term trades, selling pressure should be expected until the MACD histogram approaches the zero line, but testing the 1.03 support is critical for a possible bullish crossover with oversold RSI.
EMA Systems and Trend Strength
Short-Term EMAs
The price is trading below EMA20 (1.36 dollars), which clearly indicates a short-term bearish trend. The narrowing of the ribbon between EMA10 and EMA50 signals momentum loss, but the overall ranking is bearish: EMA10 > price < EMA20. Ribbon dynamics are weak in short-term strength measurement; volume increase is necessary for the price to approach EMA20.
Medium/Long-Term EMA Supports
The price’s position below medium-term EMA50 (around 1.45) and EMA200 (around 1.60) shows that long-term trend strength is eroding. All bands in the EMA ribbon sloping downward confirms selling momentum. The 1.0330 level intersects with EMA21 as support (78/100 score), while 1.0853 is close to EMA19 as resistance (81/100). Flattening of the EMAs could signal a reversal for trend strength.
Bitcoin Correlation
Bitcoin is in a bearish trend with a 7.59% drop at the 66,890 dollar level; Supertrend bearish and main supports at 66,720-62,778 dollars. NEAR shows high correlation with BTC (0.85%) – BTC’s failure to break the 69,399 resistance triggers altcoin sales. BTC dominance increase is pressuring NEAR; BTC breakdown below 62k is a critical bearish scenario for NEAR Spot Analysis and NEAR Futures Analysis. If BTC recovers, NEAR could rise to 1.0853; otherwise, it leads to a 0.4477 bearish target.
Momentum Result and Expectations
In the confluence of momentum indicators, oversold RSI, negative MACD histogram, and price below EMA give a strong bearish signal. While volume confirms sales, MTF levels highlight 1.0330 support and 1.0853 resistance. Bullish target 1.6890 has a low score (13), bearish 0.4477 more likely (22). For oversold bounce, monitor RSI above 30 and MACD contraction; trend change could come with EMA20 breakout. Cautious in the short term, BTC correlation decisive in the long term.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/near-technical-analysis-february-5-2026-rsi-macd-momentum
