CryptoQuant: Bitcoin has fallen below its 365-day moving average for the first time since March 2022, and may further decline to the $60,000-$70,000 range.

PANews reported on February 5th that, according to CryptoQuant's weekly report, the Bitcoin market has entered a bear market phase. Here are the key analytical points:

1. On-chain metrics are showing bearish signals: Bitcoin's price reached a high of $126,000 in early October 2025, at which time the bullish rating index was 80 (bullish). However, after the liquidation event on October 10, the index turned bearish and has now dropped to zero. Currently, Bitcoin's price is hovering around $75,000, indicating a weak market structure.

   

2. Institutional demand has declined significantly: US spot ETFs purchased 46,000 BTC in 2025, but sold a net 10,600 BTC in 2026, resulting in a demand gap of 56,000 BTC compared to the previous year, which continues to exert selling pressure.

3. Weak US Spot Demand: Despite price declines, the Coinbase premium has remained negative since mid-October 2025, indicating weak participation from US investors. This contrasts sharply with historical bull markets driven by US demand.

4. Liquidity conditions are tightening: USDT's market capitalization growth has turned negative for the first time in the past 60 days ($-133 million), marking the first contraction since October 2023. Stablecoin expansion peaked at $15.9 billion at the end of October 2025, and the current decline is consistent with the characteristics of a bear market liquidity contraction. Furthermore, explicit spot demand growth has plummeted by 93% over the past year, from 1.1 million BTC to 77,000 BTC.

5. Technical indicators suggest downside risks: Bitcoin's price has fallen below its 365-day moving average for the first time since March 2022, dropping 23% in 83 days, a weaker performance than the bear market of early 2022. The breach of key on-chain support levels suggests Bitcoin could potentially fall further to the $60,000–$70,000 range.