RENDER is approaching the oversold region with RSI at 35.58, while momentum indicators generally point to bearish pressure; the MACD’s negative histogram is expanding, confirming the downtrend below EMA20.
Trend Status and Momentum Analysis
RENDER is currently trading at the $1.51 level and has seen a 4.13% decline in the last 24 hours, with the daily range limited between $1.48-$1.65. From a momentum perspective, the overall picture shows a clear downtrend; with the price positioned below EMA20 ($1.78), the Supertrend indicator is also giving a bearish signal and highlighting the $2.09 resistance. Volume is at a moderate $57.82 million but reflects a distribution pattern supporting the decline, indicating that buyers have not yet accumulated strongly. In multi-timeframe (MTF) confluence, 11 strong levels were identified: 3 supports/3 resistances on 1D, 2 supports on 3D, and a balanced 3/3 distribution on 1W. This structure confirms that short-term momentum is weak and trend strength favors bears. The bearish configuration of oscillators like RSI and MACD increases the potential for price to test support levels.
RSI Indicator: Buy or Sell?
RSI Divergence Analysis
RSI (14) is currently at 35.58, quite close to the oversold threshold of 30. This value indicates depleting momentum, but a regular bearish divergence is observed: as price makes new lows, RSI is also testing similar low levels, showing that the downtrend is continuing healthily. No hidden bullish divergence; on the contrary, RSI’s synchronized decline with price in recent candle formations confirms that sellers are in control. On the daily chart, RSI dropping below the 40 level has made momentum weakness evident, but looking at the weekly timeframe, persistent trading below 50 shifts trend strength to the bear side. For divergence formation, watch if price tests the $1.3285 support level and RSI makes a higher low there; the current structure favors sell signals.
Overbought/Oversold Regions
The oversold region (below 30) is at the door, increasing the potential for a short-term reaction buy. However, RSI’s flattening in the 35-40 band emphasizes that momentum needs volume support to recover. Historically, when RENDER’s RSI drops below 30, average bounces of 15% have been observed after pullbacks, but in the current bearish context, this carries a ‘dead cat bounce’ risk. Buyer entry is essential for a crossover toward the 50 level; otherwise, new lows toward 20s are possible.
MACD Signals and Histogram Dynamics
MACD is in a bearish position; the signal line is below the MACD line, and the histogram is expanding in the negative zone. This dynamic shows momentum accelerating in favor of bears – the size of histogram bars increasing over the last 3 candles confirms selling pressure. The signal line crossover occurred weeks ago, and bearish momentum is maintained; persistent trading below the zero line reinforces the downtrend. The histogram showing no contraction trend gives no short-term reversal signal; on the contrary, expanding negative bars could trigger a test of the $1.4777 support. On the 4-hour chart, MACD not bouncing from low levels reveals that overall trend strength is keeping weak buyers out. The critical point to watch is a potential bullish crossover as the histogram approaches zero; the current structure favors sell signals.
EMA Systems and Trend Strength
Short-Term EMAs
With price remaining below EMA20 ($1.78), the short-term trend is bearish; the ribbon squeeze between EMA10 and EMA50 has resolved and opened downward. These ribbon dynamics indicate strong momentum in the sell direction – price not even approaching EMA9 (around $1.65) emphasizes buyer weakness. Since the EMA20 support broke on daily closes, the trend strength index (ribbon width) has widened in favor of bears.
Medium/Long-Term EMA Supports
Medium-term EMA50 ($1.92) and EMA200 ($2.15) are functioning as resistances; as long as price stays below these levels, the long-term downtrend remains valid. All bands of the EMA ribbon sloping downward is the clearest signal measuring trend strength – for buying, the ribbon needs to flatten and price must break above EMA50. In MTF, 1W EMA100 support is around $1.85; if broken, the $1.8540 resistance could be tested.
Bitcoin Correlation
RENDER shows high correlation with BTC (0.85+ over the last 30 days); BTC’s downtrend with a 4.26% drop at the $75,050 level is creating pressure on altcoins. BTC Supertrend is bearish, with main supports in the 75,472-72,930 band; if broken, RENDER’s $1.3285 support will be triggered. If BTC resistances at 77,795 and above are surpassed, altcoin momentum could recover, but rising dominance is negatively affecting RENDER. Key BTC levels: Support breakdown opens the path to $1.1790 for RENDER, while resistance breakout creates opportunities for RENDER Spot Analysis and RENDER Futures Analysis.
Momentum Outcome and Expectations
Momentum oscillators (RSI 35.58 oversold, MACD negative histogram expansion, EMA ribbon bearish opening) confirm the downtrend; volume decline confirms sells while lack of divergence sustains bear control. In the short term, unless $1.5980 resistance is broken, a test of $1.3285-$1.1790 supports is likely, with the bullish target of $2.5679 remaining distant. In a bearish scenario, the $0.4475 level is watched, but volume increase is critical for RSI bounce. Overall outlook has bearish bias, with MTF confluence supports determining trend strength. Market volatility is high, and indicators keep sell momentum in the foreground.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/render-technical-analysis-4-february-2026-rsi-macd-momentum
