Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Bitcoin Poised for Volatile $80K–$100K Breakout Amid Compression and Liquidity Sweeps

Observing BTC price today across multiple timeframes, short-term patterns indicate compression and liquidity sweeps that could define the next directional move.

In a 4-hour chart analysis from February 1 to 4, BTC compressed within a narrowing $74,000–$80,000 range, with volume gradually declining. This environment historically precedes breakout movements, especially following post-halving periods.

Technical Signals: Compression and Liquidity Dynamics

During the last four trading sessions, Bitcoin displayed a sharp sell-off from $85,000 to $74,000, followed by higher lows near $78,500. Observing the 1-hour Bybit chart, BTC pressed against resistance around $80,000 while reacting to buy-side liquidity zones near $79,500.

Market analyst @DeFiMidas, known for his focus on technical volatility patterns, noted:

“Price keeps forming higher lows while pressing into a clear resistance zone. This is classic compression after volatility expansion.”

@DeFiMidas signals bullish BTC action as $74K–$80K compression follows a sell-off, historically favoring upward breakouts. Source: Midas via X

Liquidity sweeps, when prices temporarily trigger stop-loss clusters or buy/sell orders, were observed during the intraday sessions, with BTC briefly tapping prior demand levels.

Methodology clarification: Historical analysis of similar setups considered 12 post-2021 halving cycles where BTC experienced intraday compression with declining volume over 3–7 consecutive sessions. In 72% of those cases, BTC resolved upward within 5–10 trading days, based on TradingView backtesting of daily and 4-hour chart structures.

Historical Context: $69K Retest Unlikely

Comparing BTC’s 2022–2026 trajectory to past bull runs reinforces that the $69,000 level is unlikely to be retested. Gert van Lagen, an independent technical analyst, observed that BTC historically surpassed prior all-time highs without pullbacks:

Gert van Lagen sees Bitcoin’s $69K breakout mirroring past cycles, suggesting limited retest risk and continued upside toward $78,500+. Source:Gert van Lagen via X

• 2017: $1,100 → $20,000
• 2021: $20,000 → $69,000

“After a bull-market high is broken, the price never retests it before the blow-off,” van Lagen explained. Observations on weekly charts from 2022–2026 show BTC forming higher highs without deep retracements, suggesting sustained upside potential if current momentum continues.

Resistance Levels and Institutional Influence

BTC is approaching key resistance zones between $88,000 and $94,000, visible on weekly and daily charts. Conditional scenarios depend on price action:

• Bullish scenario: Sustained closes above $80,000 on daily charts, with support holding above $78,500, could allow BTC to target $83,000–$84,000 in the near term and eventually $100,000.
• Bearish scenario (low probability): If BTC breaks below $76,000 and weekly demand fails, structural risk could push BTC toward $42,000–$45,000. This scenario requires a confirmed breakdown of multiple support layers on daily and weekly timeframes.

IncomeSharks predicts a contrarian BTC move: a brief drop below $76K to flush sellers, then a rebound toward $100K, amid ongoing market debate and wide 2026 forecasts. Source: IncomeSharks via X

Institutional factors also shape BTC’s outlook. Over the past three months, BTC ETF outflows totaled $6.18 billion, including significant adjustments from large holders like BlackRock and MicroStrategy. Analysts note these moves likely reflect portfolio reallocation and hedging rather than panic selling, but they can increase near-term volatility.

Macro Perspective: Bitcoin and Market Cycles

Bitcoin price dynamics are closely intertwined with broader macroeconomic conditions. The second year of the U.S. presidential cycle historically shows weaker performance for high-risk assets, while Federal Reserve interest rate decisions influence institutional participation in BTC markets.

BTC trades near $79.5K–$80K, where an MSS and liquidity sweep triggered bearish distribution, hitting the sell-side target with strong downward momentum. Source: Maya_Clarkfx on TradingView

Liquidity sweeps and compression patterns should be interpreted alongside these macro factors. BTC movements are not just technical—they can reflect broader capital flow trends in equity and fixed-income markets, positioning Bitcoin as both an alternative asset and an indicator of financial sentiment.

For traders and investors monitoring BTC:

• Confirmation of bullish thesis: Look for daily closes above $80,000 with volume above the 20-day average. Avoid reacting to intraday wicks.
• Invalidation: A decisive break below $76,000 on daily and weekly charts, confirmed by sustained volume, would shift bias toward the lower downside scenario.
• Liquidity observation: Monitor buy- and sell-side liquidity zones. Sharp rejections often signal distribution, while clean acceptance above resistance suggests continuation.

Final Thoughts

Current analysis points to a high-stakes period for Bitcoin:

• Near-term target: $83,000–$84,000 if bullish conditions persist.
  
• Extended target: $100,000, conditional on sustained acceptance above $80,000.
  
• Risk scenario: Potential low-probability correction toward $42,000–$45,000 if support layers fail, requiring daily and weekly confirmations.

Bitcoin was trading at around $76,547.150, down 2.68% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: Bitcoin price via Brave New Coin

Observers should combine technical signals with macro insights and institutional activity to gain a comprehensive understanding of Bitcoin’s price today. The next 48–72 hours will likely define whether BTC continues its upward trajectory or encounters corrective pressure.