K33 Report: Bitcoin's Decline Revives Four-Year Cycle Concerns, But a Deep Bear Market Unlikely to Repeat

PANews reported on February 4th that, according to The Block, research firm K33 analysis indicates that although Bitcoin has fallen approximately 40% from its October high, rekindling concerns about the downtrends of the past four years, several structural factors make it unlikely that the market will repeat the deep bear market of 2018 or 2022, which saw up to 80% declines. The report argues that the key differences between the current environment and previous cycles are: increased institutional adoption, continued inflows into regulated products (such as spot ETFs), and a loose interest rate environment. More importantly, there has been no forced deleveraging event that triggered a systemic market collapse, similar to those experienced with GBTC, Luna, or FTX.

From a technical perspective, analysts consider approximately $74,000 to be a key support level. A break below this level could exacerbate downside risks, potentially targeting $69,000 or even $58,000 (near the 200-week moving average). Meanwhile, some common bottoming signals are emerging: Bitcoin recorded a high spot trading volume exceeding $8 billion on February 2nd, while open interest and funding rates in the derivatives market have entered extreme negative territory. These signals, coupled with the price remaining above support levels, may indicate that the market is attempting to bottom out.