Novo Nordisk (NVO) Stock: CEO’s Warning Sends Shares Into Freefall

TLDR

• Novo Nordisk shares dropped 18% after forecasting 2026 sales and profit declines of 5% to 13%
• CEO warns investors to expect further declines before recovery begins
• U.S. pricing pressures from Most Favoured Nations agreement crushing margins despite strong Wegovy pill launch
• 2026 guidance came in 8% below Wall Street expectations at midpoint
• Eli Lilly shares fell 3.9% as GLP-1 market concerns spread

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Novo Nordisk shocked investors Tuesday with a brutal 2026 forecast. The company expects both sales and operating profit to fall between 5% and 13%.

Shares tanked 18% in Copenhagen Wednesday. American depositary shares had already dropped 14.6% in New York.

Novo Nordisk A/S, NVO

The guidance missed badly. BofA analyst Sachin Jain noted forecasts came in roughly 8% below consensus.

This marks the second massive cut in eight months. Last July, Novo slashed 2025 guidance, triggering a 23% single-day crash.

What’s Driving the Decline

The Most Favoured Nations agreement in the U.S. is hammering prices. Patent expiries on the semaglutide molecule in certain markets add pressure. Competition from compounding pharmacies and Eli Lilly keeps intensifying.

Novo’s 2025 results showed sales up 6% in Danish kroner and 10% at constant exchange rates to DKK 309.1 billion. Operating profit fell 1% in Danish kroner but rose 6% at constant exchange rates to DKK 127.7 billion.

U.S. operations saw 3% sales growth in Danish kroner and 8% at constant rates. International operations performed better with 10% growth in Danish kroner and 14% at constant rates.

Wegovy Pill Success Can’t Save Outlook

The Wegovy pill launch crushed expectations. After just four weeks, 170,000 patients were on the medication.

Market Reaction and Questions

Barclays analysts suggested some might view this as a “kitchen sink” guidance that will be beaten. But they warned the same was said last year, which didn’t pan out.

HSBC analyst Rajesh Kumar asked whether recovery will be “a Nike swoosh or U-shaped.”

BMO Capital analyst Evan David Seigerman noted pricing concessions weigh heavily on the topline. “Following Trump MFN deals and new needed efforts to maintain access in the obesity market, Novo now faces extensive pricing headwinds in the US.”

The damage spread beyond Novo. Eli Lilly shares closed down 3.9% as GLP-1 market worries rippled across the sector.

Novo also announced Dave Moore, Head of US Operations, will leave for personal reasons with Jamey Millar succeeding him.

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